Last week, I was looking for a counter trend rally and we finally got it starting September 30. The stock market formed an irregular bottom on September 29 no doubt due to Mars square Saturn on September 25th and the super-moon lunar eclipse of September 27th. On Friday, October 2nd the moon was in Gemini, which is ruled by Mercury, which is currently retrograde (think Bermuda Triangle). The employment report was negative, which caused gold and silver to skyrocket and stocks to plummet (subscribers were alerted the day before of a possible move of GDX to the 14.40-14.50 zone for Friday). When stocks sold off Friday morning, it caused a positive divergence in the momentum indicators (the trend was up) and the SPX went from a 30 point deficit to plus 27 points by day's end.
Next week looks choppy to begin with a 4 TD low due Monday, so I expect any initial strength in the stock market to be met by selling early Monday. With Mercury retrograde, it is best to take profits quickly. Monday's selling is then likely to be met by more buying into October 6th where there are some planetary alignments (Tuesday/Wednesday) that should lead to a Tuesday to Thursday drop of significance, much like we had last week. A move into the 1910's SPX would not surprise me Monday and then a shot all the way into the 1970's by Tuesday could be in order. Gold, silver and GDX look weak all the way into Thursday.
Below are charts of the SPX, GDX and GLD:
The stock market as measured by the SPX is looking to make a lower low that will no doubt be subject to a momentum divergence. This would then mark Wave X of B of a WXY bearish flat. The set up is there for an end of the month rally top (SPX 2033-2037?) and then a large drop into early November to the IMP's original target of around 1700. October 27/28 is the next FED meeting. I don't think the market is going to like what the FED has to say, this time, I really mean I don't think they are going to like it at all. They didn't like the September 17th announcement (as predicted) and we are still seeing the effects of that with a lot of chop in the markets and the current downward trend. The next reaction, I think, will be a lot more devastating.
Gold and the mining sector are still in the grips of a huge bear market and have been since 2011. Right now it is just skipping along a bottom, so to speak, looking to find a tradable low to have some kind of decent counter trend rally. We may finally get that in November, but I have a feeling it won't last long. The commodity sector is in the grips of its own bear market. The 8/16 year cycle predicts a low sometime next year.
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Brad Gudgeon, editor and author of the BluStar Market Timer, is a market veteran of over 30 years. The subscription website is www.blustarmarkettimer.info
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