• 14 hours $5 Million Gold Toilet Vanishes
  • 14 hours Gold On The Rise After Fed Rate Cut
  • 17 hours Oil Trader Loses $320 Million On Derivative Bets
  • 2 days S&P 500 Officially In An Earnings Recession
  • 2 days Miners Are Weathering The Trade War Storm
  • 2 days UK Credit Card Interest Rates Are Skyrocketing
  • 3 days From Frenzy To Flop, The Death Of This Year’s Most Hyped IPO
  • 3 days Are Smart TVs Spying On Us?
  • 3 days Is Fossil Fuel Divestment A Waste Of Time?
  • 4 days A Russian Billionaire’s Space Quest To Save Humanity
  • 4 days Markets Take Breather As Consolidation Continues
  • 4 days Economic Woes Weigh On Copper Prices
  • 4 days World's Largest IPO At Risk Following Drone Strikes
  • 5 days Gold Is Beating Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway
  • 5 days What’s Behind The Silver Sell-Off?
  • 5 days The Retail Apocalypse Is Accelerating
  • 5 days The Top Tech Stocks Of The Year
  • 6 days America’s Workforce Elderly Workforce To Double By 2028
  • 6 days Toyota Tests Solar-Powered Prius
  • 7 days Why The Gold Rally Flatlined
Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

Modern monetary theory has been…

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Welcome to Art Basel: The…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Housing Starts Surprise to Upside Led by Multi-Family, Permits Surprise to Downside

There's something for bulls and bears alike to cheer about in today's housing starts report. Starts were ever-so-slightly above the top Econoday Estimate but permits were well below the lowest economist's estimate.

Starts, driven by a spike in multi-family units, came in much stronger than expected in September, news offset however by a significant decline in permits. Starts jumped 6.5 percent to a 1.206 million annual rate which is just outside Econoday's high estimate. Multi-family starts surged 18.3 percent to 466,000 which follows large spikes in related permits in May and June. Single-family starts rose very slightly, up 0.3 percent to 740,000.

But it's the permit side of the report that's weak, down 5.0 percent to only 1.103 million which is well below Econoday's low estimate. And it's the multi-family component that's especially weak, down 12.1 percent to 406,000 which is the lowest reading since March. Permits of single-family units are flat, down 0.3 percent to a 697,000 rate.

Taking the ups and downs all together, this report is probably in trend, pointing to an extended upward trend for construction though the abrupt downturn in permits does hint at slowing in the months ahead. Year-on-year, starts are up a very striking 17.5 percent with permits, however, up only 4.7 percent.


Permits


Larger Image


Single-Family Starts


Larger Image

Those charts add quite a bit of needed perspective on the housing "recovery".

Single family construction is most important stat because it leads more directly to family formation.

With permits down and single-family units stagnating, one has to question the huge surge in optimism from builders. Not only are sales weak, but traffic is down.

For details, please see Homebuilder Confidence Soars to Highest Level in 10 Years Despite Falling Traffic; Unwarranted Optimism?

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment