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Dan Norcini

Dan Norcini

Dan Norcini is a professional off-the-floor commodities trader bringing more than 25 years experience in the markets to provide a trader's insight and commentary on…

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Bye, Bye Euro

So how does it fell Mr. Euro to get smacked upside the head by your supposed caretaker?

Mario Draghi must be taking lessons from the Bank of Japan because this is one of the best verbal whoopin's I have seen put on a currency.

Mario yanked the rug out hard; so hard, that the basement is now evident.

I do not wish to get too dramatic here but the truth is that the Europeans simply do not want the Euro above 1.140 and they did their best to take it down. Traders can take away from his comments today that they will have the ECB at their back if the Euro starts getting too goofy to the upside. that will enable to sell rather comfortably up there should the Euro revisit that level. It would take some sort of huge sea change in sentiment tied to a fundamental development for the ECB to tolerate the Euro above 1.14-1.15 based on what Mr. Draghi said today.

Euro Daily Chart
Larger Image

On the technical charts, it collapsed through the 50 day moving average in the process triggering a fresh sell signal in the process. The question is will the bears be able to take it down to 1.100 or will the Fed get geared up and start their version of Dollar verbal intervention?

I have made no secret of my view that the last FOMC statement, and the previous one for that matter, were designed to SPECIFICALLY TAKE THE DOLLAR DOWN and prevent it from strengthening further.

That strengthening Dollar has proved to be a bane for US multinationals and no doubt there is plenty of grumbling that has reached the ears of the Fed. Also, generally speaking, the stronger the US Dollar is, the more selling pressure has tended to hit the commodity sector. My big question now is, will the Fed be as concerned about the level of the Dollar IF THE COMMODITY SECTOR continues to have the REFLATION EFFECT taking place like it is seeing today.

In other words, the Fed has been targeting the US Dollar because it has led to falling commodity prices, something the Fed does not want to see continuing once they fall to a level low enough where the low prices work to seriously impact those sectors of the economy that deal with the production/manufacturing/distribution of said commodities. The Fed simply does not want to see the job losses mount as a result as it works to short circuit their goal of achieving an annual inflation rate of 2%.

Now along comes the ECB and with it, at least for today, the REFLATION TRADE in the base metals. If commodity prices can stop falling into an abyss, even with the Dollar rising, the concerns of the Fed over the level of the US Dollar will be ameliorated.

What none of us know for certain is whether this will be the case or not. We are back into uncharted territory since none of us have ever lived through a situation like this in which so many Central Banks are reflating by shoving interest rates into the toilet.

For all we know, the base metals rally of today could be gone tomorrow. Either way, the Fed is going to be keenly watching the performance of the US Dollar and the price movement in the overall commodity sector as a result of today's action by the ECB. If the Dollar rally does not apply further downward pressure on the commodity sector overall, then my thinking is that they might be a bit more inclined to pull the trigger on the first rate hike IF THEY EVER GET A DECENT JOBS number. On the flip side - if commodity prices start sinking again, especially the metals, then they will bring out their version of dovish Fed speak once more.

Funny isn't it how we have seen our entire global financial system reduced to a barrage of words coming out of the mouths of Central Bankers. "Funny" is a poor choice of a word, "PATHETIC" is more like it.

 

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