• 2 days America's Semiconductor Shortage Is Just Getting Started
  • 2 days America's Semiconductor Shortage Is Just Getting Started
  • 5 days The EU Begins Backtracking On China Trade
  • 6 days Americans Are Sick Of Unfair Taxation
  • 8 days No Jab, No Job: The New Hardline Policy of U.S. Employers
  • 10 days What’s Included In Biden’s $6 Trillion Economic Plan?
  • 11 days The “Great Car Comeback” Brightens Oil Demand Outlook
  • 12 days The 3 Most Profitable Covid-19 Vaccine Stocks
  • 14 days Beijing Launches Digital Currency To Break AliPay-WeChat Duopoly
  • 15 days The New Economic World Order After Covid-19
  • 19 days 3 Signals To Watch For A Stock Market Correction
  • 21 days Netflix Earnings Red Alert: Subscriptions Could Underwhelm
  • 22 days Wall Street Banks Are Back
  • 22 days Elon Musk’s SpaceX Scores Big Win Over Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin
  • 23 days Which Country Is The World’s Largest Investor In Batteries?
  • 24 days Are Bitcoin’s Environmental Risks Overblown?
  • 25 days Why The Gold Rush Ran Out Of Steam
  • 27 days Coinbase IPO Explodes, But Fails To Keep Its Momentum
  • 28 days China Slaps Alibaba With Record $2.75B Antitrust Fine
  • 29 days The Pandemic Has Culled The Middle Class
What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Welcome to Art Basel: The…

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

Modern monetary theory has been…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Inflation Bull

Equity markets continue to defy our call for no end-of-year rally as equity investors rush to invest idle cash and not miss out on the positive feedback loop of higher prices. SPX has broken the mid-Sept high at 2,020 leaving behind a series of higher highs and higher lows; the definition of an uptrend. Price is the ultimate arbiter but we cannot ignore other signals if we want to be successful in forecasting price.

Inflation expectations (chart) bounced after testing the January low but are falling again and may get a chance to re-test the lows during the next pullback in equities. A break to new lows would be very bearish for equities.

A close by the yield on the 10 year treasury (TNX) below the February low at 16.75 would be deflationary and bearish equities.

The US Dollar may have printed the expected double bottom during the previous week giving us the cycle low we've been waiting on. A rising Dollar is deflationary which is bearish-equities.

Small Caps have been underperforming during the fall rally and have not exceeded their Sept high. Relative performance (vs. SPX) is breaking down from what may be described as a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. A bull market without leadership from small caps should be considered suspect.

5-year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate with 5-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security, Constant Maturity
Larger Image


Try a trial subscription at Seattle Technical Advisors.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment