• 3 hours Rise Of EVs Signals Peak Gasoline
  • 21 hours Jeff Bezos Doubles Down On Space Colonization Ambitions
  • 1 day Gold Mining Stocks Stuck In Limbo
  • 2 days Executive Order Targets Huawei Over Espionage
  • 2 days Why Now May Be The Best Time Ever To Hold Gold
  • 3 days Fake News Sinks Shares In UK-Based Bank
  • 3 days De Beers To Build $468 Million Diamond Recovery Ship
  • 3 days Moody's: Turkey Faces Possible Credit Downgrade
  • 3 days Tesla's Solar Sales Are Slipping
  • 4 days Auto Industry To Get Temporary Tariff Relief
  • 4 days Welcome To The World’s Biggest Free Trade Area
  • 4 days Central Banks Are Stockpiling Gold At The Fastest Rate In Half A Decade
  • 4 days U.S.-China Impasse Threatens Rare Earth Trade
  • 5 days Wall Street Bears $1 Trillion Brunt Of Trade War
  • 5 days Mobile Sports Betting Isn’t Quite Minting Millionaires Just Yet
  • 5 days The Marijuana Industry’s Shocking Secret
  • 5 days A Generational Shift Is Quietly Unfolding In The Mining Industry
  • 6 days Pentagon To Pay $6 Billion To Help Build Border Wall
  • 6 days Beijing Backlash: Stocks Slammed, Gold Boosted
  • 6 days Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months
How Millennials Are Reshaping Real Estate

How Millennials Are Reshaping Real Estate

The real estate market is…

Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings

Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings

Earnings season is well underway,…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Inflation Bull

Equity markets continue to defy our call for no end-of-year rally as equity investors rush to invest idle cash and not miss out on the positive feedback loop of higher prices. SPX has broken the mid-Sept high at 2,020 leaving behind a series of higher highs and higher lows; the definition of an uptrend. Price is the ultimate arbiter but we cannot ignore other signals if we want to be successful in forecasting price.

Inflation expectations (chart) bounced after testing the January low but are falling again and may get a chance to re-test the lows during the next pullback in equities. A break to new lows would be very bearish for equities.

A close by the yield on the 10 year treasury (TNX) below the February low at 16.75 would be deflationary and bearish equities.

The US Dollar may have printed the expected double bottom during the previous week giving us the cycle low we've been waiting on. A rising Dollar is deflationary which is bearish-equities.

Small Caps have been underperforming during the fall rally and have not exceeded their Sept high. Relative performance (vs. SPX) is breaking down from what may be described as a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. A bull market without leadership from small caps should be considered suspect.

5-year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate with 5-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security, Constant Maturity
Larger Image


Try a trial subscription at Seattle Technical Advisors.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment