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GDP at Stall Speed Once Again

Inquiring minds may be interested in the initial Atlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate for 4th quarter 2015. Here is the chart.

GDP Now Forecast 1

The ISM release on November 2 had a big impact.

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 1.9 percent on November 2, down from 2.5 percent on October 30. Following this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business, the forecast for fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth declined from 2.9 percent to 2.4 percent while the forecast for real equipment investment growth declined from 3.9 percent to 1.3 percent.

GDP Now Forecast 2

I wrote about the ISM report on November 2 in Manufacturing ISM Flirts With Contraction Third Month, Employment Shifts to Contraction

Although the ISM index was the lowest reading since May of 2013, the reading was still positive (presumably showing growth).

I sometimes have difficulty predicting large moves in GDPNow estimates following economic news releases. This was one of those times.

The GDPNow model sees things this way.

GDP Model

I would have guessed a decline of 0.2% or so. Instead, the model says the ISM numbers led to a 0.6% decline.

Regardless, here we go again. The initial GDPNow estimate is already contracting, and is below the stall speed of 2.0% growth.

And the Fed, for the first time ever, now seeks to hike interest rates in December with GDP averaging a mere 2%± growth for an entire year.

 

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