Cycle and Fundamentals do sync together. Druckkenmiller has the feeling we are closer to the top than the bottom.
We enter a risk off or more bearish combination of cycle over the next 9 months
Stanley Druckenmiller gave an interview and there are two major takeaways for me from the video above:
- The greatest hedge fund manager of all time is now operating under the assumption that a primary bear market began in July.
- Due to the massive mis allocation of capital in recent years and the long-term demographic headwind going forward, normal investors should probably be in cash.
"One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth - or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world. They have cost stock traders, taken together, enough millions of dollars to build a concrete highway across the continent." ~ Jesse Livermore
"The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios... The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market." ~ George Soros
"The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing." ~ Philip Fisher
"Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas." ~ Nobel Laureate for Economics Paul Samuelson
"Successful speculation requires staying on top of changes in industries and companies that either create new industries or improve on existing industries. The majority of your profits will come from these two ... The shrewdest traders throughout history all adapted the skill of reactionary change, as the market constantly presents new and different opportunities." ~ Bernard Baruch