There are two things we know for certain about gold and silver: 1. Fundamentals do not apply [currently], and 2. There are no signs to indicate an end to this half-decade old bear market.
There have been many calls for a turnaround in gold and silver since 2013. In fact, the calls were not just for a turnaround, but also calls for $10,000+ gold, and $400+ silver, starting in 2014. It became apparent to us in the first half of 2014 that it would end with a whimper, just as 2013 did, and as 2014 continued, it seemed equally as likely that 2015 may not fare much better, and it not only did not, but it got worse with lower prices and the prospects for still lower prices to come. This puts the first part of 2016 in question.
We chose to comment on the Syria situation over the past few weeks because it seemed to address the fact that gold and silver would not show any signs of a turnaround for as long as situations like Syria exist with zero fear impact to move gold higher. We say fear impact because there is a greater probability that the Middle East, and Syria in particular could ignite WWIII.
It makes no sense to discuss fundamentals as applied to PMs because they are inoperative at the present time, thanks to globalist US central bank manipulation, [throw in the UK].
It is taking far longer than most expected for gold and silver to reflect the incredible world imbalance between issuing endless fiat, corrupting bonds, and hiding everything behind a shadow derivative market. There can be no doubt that ownership of physical gold and silver will reward their holders. It has been proven so throughout time, and it will prove to be the case this time around, as well. Keep buying, keep holding.
The Obama administration is doing everything it can to create the potential for eminent disaster on top of the disaster it has created in creating ISIS as a means of unlawfully getting rid of an elected president in Assad. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey are also doing their part to make a bad situation worse to make sure Shiites do not gain any more power or control in that trio's backyard.
If these unfolding events cannot bring to bear any impact on the price of gold, then gold and silver will remain as mired down at low levels as much as the US has remained mired down in its failed policies throughout the Middle East in its destabilization efforts to being about change. Russia's support of Assad has exposed both the duplicity and ineptness of the US trying to get rid of the Syrian president.
Americans live in a media bubble that precludes them from hearing what is actually going on in Syria, even Yemen. Let us back track about 6 or 7 months ago. Russia had proposed a UN Security Council resolution prohibiting the use of Space/Cosmos for military purposes. Guess which country vetoed it? A few weeks later, Russia renamed its Air Force to Air-Cosmic Force. There was zero media coverage. Absolutely none! Then, just 2 weeks later, a US satellite was blown up, ostensibly because of a "sudden temperature increase."
We will never know what the purpose of the satellite was, but it is odd that this happened, and it is an example of the subsidiary events that do not seem directly linked to the Middle East, yet the common denominator linking the US is Russia. The globalists want Russia subdued into submission, and Obama is doing what he can in the service to the globalists to bring Russia to her knees, but Putin has become an embarrassing thorn in the sides of the globalists and Obama.
Recently, Laura Seal, spokeswoman for the US State Dept, said Russia was bombing Syrian hospitals and killing civilians. When pressed by two reporters, one from RT [Russia Today], she refused to give any specifics. [Hard to justify lies when pressed for the truth.] However, the US has admitted, on record, to bombing a hospital in Afghanistan, a Doctors Without Borders hospital, killing 30. Further, civilians fleeing the hospital on foot were shot down by the planes, according to surviving witnesses.
Not only has there been no US media coverage keeping the American public [un]informed of events, there has been no accountability for the Nobel Peace Prize recipient Obama's failed intervention in Syria being responsible for the loss of over 300,000 lives and the displacement of over 4,ooo,ooo refugees. Instead of trying to defeat ISIS, which the US claims is one of the worst imaginable terrorist organizations, [created, financed, and armed by the CIA], Obama is ramping up ammunition drops to ISIS and other terrorists and sending more troops to Iraq to halt Putin's momentum. The chance of a major war increases everyday.
Syria has officially asked for Russia to intervene, and Syria has also told the US it is neither wanted nor needed. That has not stopped Obama as he and his neocon advisers have decided to put 30 - 50 special ops advisors in Syria, aka boots on the ground, something Obama promised not to do on at least 16 recent occasions. Of course, Obama has an unblemished record for not keeping any of his promises.
[Neocons are all for curtailing civil liberties, free markets, and want to see national identity cards introduced in the US to easier track people].
It is no coincidence that just a few weeks after Russia began bombing ISIS strongholds and killing large numbers, embarrassing the US again, a Russian commercial jet airliner mysteriously exploded in mid-air, killing all aboard. Interestingly, it was the US that was first to claim that a bomb had been placed on board the flight. As another aside, it should be noted that Israel is in charge of Egypt's airport security. [What could go wrong there?]
What led the US to express that conclusion? It had a satellite thermal image of a bright flash occurring just as the plane was destroyed in the air. How interesting the US would be following by satellite a Russian commercial flight out of Egypt that happened to capture the explosion in real-time. Why would the US be following a routine commercial flight out of Egypt by satellite?
Recall how last summer, 2014, when Malaysian flight MH-17 was shot down while flying over Ukraine. You can bet that the US was closely following this war region by satellite in an area where it had an active interest, yet for some reason, it never spoke out about having satellite images of that flight when actual thermal images existed. For those with short memories, the day after the downing of flight MH-17, Obama announced that the plane was downed by Russia, accusing Putin of being involved. There is a reason why Obama never uttered another accusatory word since, and he certainly never retracted his accusation against Putin.
With the downing of the Russian jet, killing all aboard, how does Obama respond?
On Tuesday November 3rd, U.S. Defense Department spokesperson Laura Seal announced that twelve F-15C air-to-air combat planes are being sent to the Incirlik Turkey Air Base for deployment in Syria against Russia's Su-30 air-to-air combat planes. Neither the F-15C nor the Su-30 can destroy ground-targets, only air-targets -- enemy planes.
It is important to understand that the F-15C planes cannot destroy ISIS ground targets. Rather, the planes are solely for air-to-air combat. Guess which is the only country authorized to fly in Syrian air space? Yes, Russia. So Obama is deliberately sending in planes that may eventually be used against Russia's Su-30 fighters.
Can there by any doubt in anyone's mind that the US and the Obama regime are deliberately interfering in another sovereign country's affairs, especially after being told the US was not welcome there? The US has been doing everything possible, for decades, to subdue, and destroy, if necessary, Russia? Why else would the US be doing everything possible to place NATO bases as close to Russia as possible?
If, and everyone hopes it remains "if" and not when, WWIII is started, it will be from the direct actions taken by the most aggressions/suppressive nation on the planet, the corporate federal UNITED STATES, owned and directed by the globalists.
Many, if not most Americans still believe the federal government is there to protect them, in some way. We always advocate that people do their own due diligence and not take our word for anything said in these commentaries. Every US citizen was declared to be an enemy of the federal government by an amendment to the Trading With The Enemy Act in 1933. It is harder to verify now on the internet because a lot of information is being "sanitized," but persistence will pay off. The federal government is not why people think.
It was a matter of time before the Federal Reserve fiat issue "dollar" would renew its upward pressure. The Fed is irretrievably caught in its web of fiat self-destruction, at least for the US and a good part of the EU. More than likely, the globalists are grooming the Yuan to replace the "dollar," but China is not prepared to take over that role of the world's reserve currency.
It is not impossible to say China may never take over that role, but if it is to be the globalist's Special Drawing Rights [SDRs] that become the next de facto world currency, China will want to and will play a more important role and have a greater say. Russia and its Ruble remain a question mark.
As we have noted all year, the currency correction has been relatively weak, and weak corrections auger for higher prices. There is no way to know how much higher the deception of the fiat "dollar" will go.
In any/all TRs, a resolve is reached as price moves farther and farther along the RHS of the TR [Right Hand Side]. There will inevitably be signs of some form of ending action that declares the down trend to be finished. We have not yet seen any such sign. The sooner price can make a new recent lower low, the greater the probability that the down trend will end. In that regard, everyone who wants to be bullish should cheer on lower prices, for now.
If the daily chart conveys any message at all, it says the down trend is not over, and the probability of a new recent low is greater, as of last week. The EDM [Ease of Downward Movement], since the mid-October high is an overt statement that sellers remain in full control, and buyers remain unable to help their own cause.
The trend is down, and knowledge of any trend is a one of the most important pieces of information one can have. We have been making this point for the past few years and will continue making it until a change has been confirmed.
Never fight the tape, an old saw that will always remain true.
Compare the TR section from June 2013 through October 2014, with the lower TR from November 2014 to date. The latter, lower TR has smaller ranges and is more compact. This is the market advertising the fact that sellers, while still in control are finding it more difficult to push price lower and faster over the past year. It may be a clue that the end of this protracted TR gets closer to ending. All that is needed is a form of ending action, and there is none.
The false breakout, 8 TDs ago, looked promising because of the relatively weak correction following the rally at the start of October. We took a small position on the breakout and experienced a small loss. No one can be blamed for getting long, based on developing market activity that had a positive formation, for there was really no way to anticipate the manner in which price did ultimately reverse so quickly.
The use of stops kept exposure at a reasonable level, and stops are a necessary requirement. Anyone who trades without stops is asking for a shortened trading life.
More patience is required in holding gold and silver. Buying and holding still makes sense. The fiat "dollar" cannot and will not survive.