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The Participation Rate Mystery - Solved!

The Participation Rate Mystery - Solved!

With Charles Hugh Smith & Gordon T Long

25 Minutes - 22 Slides

Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long discuss the puzzle of the falling US Civilian Labor Participation Rate in which all the pundits express concern but few agree on what the root cause is.


Relentless Technology Adancement - Gaining The Right Perspective

Together they show that it is instructive to start with the larger picture going back to 1970 when massive historic computer technology advancements truly began to be adopted.

Technology Adoption Rate

Schumpeter's Creative Destruction was in full swing and accelerated as every industry was re-invented by labor saving technology. As this wave gained momentum real, family supporting full time jobs became scarcer while fewer equivalent paying new jobs were created when the ratio to population growth was properly factored in.


Rapid Entry of Women in The Workforce Distorts Comparisons

Examining the actual participation rate chart from 1970 there is clear evidence of the initial rapid entry of women into the workforce. This surge distorts effective comparisons to today's developments and the cause of the more recent accelerating problem.

Rapid Entry of Women in The Workforce Distorts Comparisons


Three Key Drivers of The Post 2008 Decline

During the post 2008 financial crisis period, there has been at least three key drivers of the further acceleration in the decline of the US labor participation rate. This is in addition to the ubiquitous adoption of productivity enhancing technology and the effective de-industrialization of America:

  • Childcare Costs & Forced Part Time Hours,
  • Labor Age Youth Unemployment and Growth of non-paying "Internships",
  • Rate of Job Obsolescence versus retraining opportunities.

Childcare Costs

... all of these drivers are discussed with insightful discussion on the subject with supporting graphics and illustrations. Listen below:

 

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