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Paul Rejczak

Paul Rejczak

Stock market strategist, who has been known for quality of his technical and fundamental analysis since the late nineties. He is interested in forecasting market…

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Stock Trading Alert: Positive Expectations Following Last Week's Sell-off, But Will It Last?

Stock Trading Alert originally published on December 21, 2015, 6:49 AM:


Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook is now neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

The main U.S. stock market indexes lost 1.8-2.1% on Friday, extending their short-term uptrend, as investors continued their post-interest-rate-increase selling. The S&P 500 index got close to support level of 1,990-2,000, as it retraced its recent move up. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,040-2,050, marked by previous local lows. For now, it looks like a medium-term consolidation following October rally:

S&P500 Futures Daily Chart
Larger Image

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are positive, with index futures currently up 0.8-0.9%. The European stock market indexes have gained 0.5-0.9% so far. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday uptrend, as it retraces some of its Friday's sell-off. The nearest important level of support is at around 1,990-2,000. On the other hand, resistance level is at 2,020-2,030, marked by previous local highs, as the 15-minute chart shows:

S&P500 Futures 15-Minute Chart
Larger Image

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract follows a similar path, as it retraces some of Friday's decline. The nearest important level of resistance is at 4,570-4,580, and support level is at 4,500, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:

NASDAQ100 Futures 15-Minute Chart
Larger Image

Concluding, the broad stock market continued its short-term downtrend on Friday, as the S&P 500 index got closer to 2,000 mark. However, it continues to trade within two-month long consolidation so far. We prefer to be out of the market, avoiding low risk/reward ratio trades. We will let you know when we think it is safe to get back in the market.

Thank you.


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