• 405 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 405 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 407 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 807 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 812 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 814 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 817 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 817 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 818 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 820 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 820 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 824 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 824 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 825 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 827 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 828 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 831 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 832 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 832 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 834 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Elliott Wave International

Elliott Wave International

Elliott Wave International

Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. EWI's 20-plus analysts provide around-the-clock forecasts of every major market in the world via…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Risk On? Risk Off? Find Out Where Your Money Lies

A peek at the new free report from the editors of our Financial Forecast Service

It's Christmas, "the hap-happiest season of all." Yet, here's a sobering fact for U.S. investors: S&P 500 stocks are actually lower now than at the end of last year (chart: Google Finance):

S&P500 Weekly Chart

You could say that we've had a long bull market, so one "slow" year is OK. But Steve Hochberg and Pete Kendall, the editors of Elliott Wave International's Financial Forecast Service, have recently documented several indicators which confirm that investors are actually losing their appetite for risk.

In fact, EWI has put together a subscriber-level special report with specific details on this phenomenon -- from IPOs to corporate buyback to emerging markets.

You'll find an excerpt below -- and to read this new report in full, free, simply click here.



From Risk On to Risk Off

...Another example is the market for Initial Public Offerings, which The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast identified as ripe for a reversal back in the fall of 2014.

Citing a "euphoria" surrounding Alibaba, which remains the largest IPO ever, we noted a similarity to the record-setting deals that hit the market in November 1999 and March 2008. After each ebullient period, the overall market fell sharply. The long term chart of the Bloomberg IPO Index shows the reversal in the IPO aftermarket that followed each speculative episode:

IPO Party Cycle Over

Interestingly, the peaks are exactly 7.38 years from each other, creating a long-term cycle top that is now behind us. Since September 2014, more than half of the 35 companies that went public with initial valuations of more than $1 billion are now below their IPO price. Many of the most heavily hyped offerings since 2011 are also down dramatically from their post-IPO highs, such as Alibaba (-30%), Twitter (-65%), Zynga (-85%) and Groupon (-90%).

Square Inc., a digital payment company, was supposed to be the next high-flyer when it debuted in mid-November, but before it even hit the market, its prospects diminished as underwriters reduced its offering price to $9 a share, 20% below its estimated opening range.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "skeptical investors" forced the reduction, "further souring the market for new technology-company stock." ...

(Editor's note: Emerging markets; mergers and acquisitions; corporate stock buybacks -- see more warning signs in the rest of EWI's new special report. Read it free now.)

 


This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Risk On? Risk Off? Find Out Where Your Money Lies. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment