• 17 hours Gold Is Still A Safe Haven, But Not Very Alluring
  • 1 day What Does CHina’s EV Slowdown Mean For The Battery Metals Sector?
  • 2 days COVID Report Cards Will Brand Businesses Forever
  • 2 days Trump Tweet Sends Oil Soaring 25%
  • 3 days Why The Coronavirus Economic Crash Is Worse Than You Think
  • 3 days Is A Global Currency Necessary?
  • 4 days America Has Shed 500,000 Millionaires Since The Coronavirus Lockdown Began
  • 4 days Trump Wants Another $2 Trillion Economic Intervention
  • 5 days The Surprising Businesses Deemed “Essential” During The Coronavirus Lockdown
  • 5 days Priceless Van Gogh "Spring Garden" Painting Stolen
  • 5 days Oil Falls To $20 For First Time In Nearly Two Decades
  • 5 days COVID-19 Could Be The End Of U.S. Coal
  • 6 days How Much Does Your Social Security Number Cost? $4 On The Dark Web
  • 7 days Silver Stocks Have Been Decimated In The Coronavirus Sell-Off
  • 8 days How Blockchain Tech Could Make Mergers And Acquisitions More Efficient
  • 8 days America’s Shortage Of This Metal Keeps Trump Up At Night
  • 9 days Bidet Bonanza: Defying The Toilet Paper Shortage
  • 9 days U.S. Auto Sales Fall By 75%
  • 10 days Violating Quarantine? Big Brother Is Watching
  • 10 days Does Gold Still Have Some Room To Run?
What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

A Bottom in Equities

My December 15 commentary included a forecast for a high in equities near December 24. The eventual high which led to last week's big sell-off came two trading days late on December 29. In this week's commentary we turn our attention to forecasting a bottom to the current decline in equities.

By combining the concept of Middle Sections (developed by the late technician George Lindsay) with my own, more traditional approach to cycles, I have developed a forecasting model I call the Hybrid Lindsay Model. It is used to forecast the calendar dates of highs and lows in the Dow Jones industrial index. It does not forecast price levels. The forecast for a low in the Dow this week is detailed below. While not part of the model, a happy coincidence is that the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has 20 trading-day cycle high due on January 12 (chart) giving that day (Tuesday) the highest probability for an end to the decline.

Middle Sections

A flattened top on 8/18/06 counts 1,719 days to the high of the previous Basic Cycle on 5/22/11. 1,719 days later is January 15.

Point C of a descending Middle Section on 9/25/14 counts 236 days to the high of the Multiple Cycle on 5/19/15. 237 days later is Monday, January 12.

Cycles

A micro-cycle low is due on 1/12/16. A monthly trading cycle low is due near 1/15/16. There are two other equally reliable trading cycles due Jan 22-25. We need to keep those in mind.

Don't forget the 34-week cycle which has done a phenomenal job marking highs during the bull market. It is due the week of Jan 18-22. I expect it will make an early showing this time.

Lindsay Intervals

107-day interval (102-112 days) counted from the low on 9/29/15 counts to a high in the period January 11-19.

A low-high-high count will exist if a top falls on 1/13/16 (which is 71 days after the high of Nov 3, which is 71 days after the low 8/24/15).

Lindsay Intervals Chart
Larger Image

 


Get your copy of the January Lindsay Report at Seattle Technical Advisors.com

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment