• 706 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 706 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 708 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,107 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,112 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,114 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,117 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,117 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,118 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,120 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,120 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,124 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,124 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,125 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,128 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,128 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,131 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,132 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,132 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,134 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Welcome to Art Basel: The…

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

4th Quarter GDPNow Forecast Sinks to +0.6 Percent; Fed Futures Target 1 Hike in 2016; Disastrous Data Recap

I have never seen the Atlanta Fed take as long to post a scheduled update to their GDP Forecast as they did today. Their forecast came out late this afternoon, but it did beat the market close.

GDPNow


Latest forecast -- January 15, 2016

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 0.6 percent on January 15, down from 0.8 percent on January 8. The forecast for fourth quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 2.0 percent to 1.7 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the industrial production release from the Federal Reserve.


5 Disastrous Economic Reports From Today

  1. Inventory to Sales: Manufacturing Inventories Decline But Inventory-to-Sales Ratio Doesn't Budge; Another Recessionary Looking Chart
  2. Producer Prices: Producer Prices Decline More Than Expected, Services Disappoint; Oil Approaches $29
  3. Industrial Production: Industrial Production Numbers and Revisions Shockingly Bad; Autos Have Peaked
  4. Empire State Manufacturing: Empire State Manufacturing Index Posts Horrific -19.37, Lowest Reading Since April 2009
  5. Retail Sales: December Retail Sales Negative; Other Economic Data Horrid

That's likely the worst set of economic reports since the last recession.


Fed Futures Target 1 Hike in 2016

Following today's set of horrific reports, odds of rate hikes in 2016 dropped substantially. Fed Fund Futures analysis show the March hike odds shrank all the way to 31% from 55% last month.

Fed Futures Target 1 Hike in 2016

The first hike is now expected in July, but barely. And looking all the way out to December, the futures still suggest only one hike.

Fed Futures Target 1 Hike in 2016

Note the significant 33.9% chance of no more hikes for the entire year!

Nonetheless, a parade of Fed governors attempted to talk up the strength of the economy over the past few days, even today.

The market laughed in their face.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment