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New Bull Market in Gold on Track

Last week we focused on the gold stocks. There was more initial evidence of a new bull market there than in Gold. However, Thursday Gold erased some doubts as it rocketed above $1200/oz and to as high as $1264/oz before settling a bit lower. That move puts Gold's recovery on par with those following past major lows and offers greater confirmation that a new bull market is underway.

The chart below plots the recoveries from 1976 and 2008 and puts them on the same scale as the current rebound. Note how those recoveries surged well above $1200/oz within three months. Moreover, note how $1200/oz served as a pivot point for those two recoveries within two months before pushing much higher. Gold does not have to zoom to $1400/oz in the next few months to validate the new bull market. It's more important that it holds above $1200/oz in the weeks ahead.

Gold Recovery Analog

In addition to $1200/oz, $1180/oz is also a very important level. It has marked resistance and support numerous times in recent years as well as during 2009 to 2010. A monthly close above $1180/oz, which also surrounds the 20-month moving average is another sign that the bear market in Gold is over. February is only half over but Gold appears poised to close above $1180/oz.

Gold Monthly Chart

Meanwhile, Gold continues to show impressive relative strength against foreign currencies and equities in particular. Gold against foreign currencies is at a 10-month high and could soon test a 3-year high. (We should also note Gold relative to emerging market currencies is at a 34 month). Gold against the NYSE hit more than a 2-year high this week. Note how these ratios have surged well above their 400-day moving averages which will now be support. This relative strength reflects that this move in Gold extends far beyond US$ weakness.

Gold versus NYSE

Unless Gold somehow loses its gains and closes February below $1180/oz then there is no reason to doubt a major trend change and new bull market. Gold is very strong in real terms and has been for weeks. Gold's recovery is now on par with past recoveries and the metal has taken out key resistance at $1180/oz. Last week we concluded: While we have some concerns on the metals we should note that the miners lead at major turning points. The miners are telling us something has changed. There will be pullbacks and periods of consolidation but the forever bear market is over.

 


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