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Sp500: The Countertrend Rebound Has a Target in The Range 1980-2000?

Monthly time frame:

  • The impressive bottoming tail is suggesting a pause within a likely larger correction, although with one day left to end the month of February the countertrend rally has not prevented the bearish cross of the 10 mma below the 20 mma
  • Probably we should expect a larger rebound before SP 500 resumes the downtrend.
  • If the trend line from the March 2009 does not hold, the next down leg should be heading towards the next support located in the range 1576 - 1553

S&P500 Monthly Chart
Larger Image

Weekly time frame:

  • My preferred count from the May 22 Top remains the same: at the February low SP 500 has completed a Zig Zag (ABC)
  • Monthly and weekly oscillators are suggesting that the correction is not done yet hence in my humble opinion odds should favor that the current Zig Zag will morph into a Double Zig Zag or unfold a larger impulsive wave (C)
  • Today price has been rejected at the 0.5 retracement, however I would not go blindly short since breadth indicators are not suggesting that the current rebound has run its course, instead probably after a pullback the exhaustion zone could be located in the range 1980-2000 (The declining 20 wma could be tagged).
  • The range 1980-2000 is a probable target for the countertrend rebound but Breadth Indicators must deteriorate otherwise it could be exceeded

S&P500 Weekly Chart
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Daily time frame:

  • Today's price action (The gap up has been closed; possible exhaustion gap) is at least suggesting a short-term pause
  • Since price has not gained enough traction above the 50 dma, at the beginning of next week, we might see a drop below it and even a larger pullback at the 10 dma = 1922
  • As long as the 20 dma = 1897 holds odds should favor another up leg with a potential target in the mentioned box (1980-2000). Maybe the gap at 1990 could be filled
  • If instead SP 500 reclaims the 200 dma it would be game over for the Bears. (In my humble opinion this scenario is not probable)

S&P500 Daily Chart
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60 minute time frame:

  • It is obvious that the advance from the February 12 low is corrective (Countertrend)
  • So far it seems reasonable that SP 500 is unfolding a Double Zig Zag within a Rising Wedge. This scenario would be too easy. I remain open-minded as the price structure can easily morph into a different corrective pattern, In addition breadth indicators are not poised for an immediate reversal.

S&P500 60-Minute Chart
Larger Image

In the technical front:

  • The RSI of the Summation Index is entering the overbought zone, but usually a reversal occurs when the histogram of the MACD displays a negative divergence and the Summation Index triggers a sell signal by crossing the 10 dma. So far it is not the case in addition the 10 dma is far off

NYSE McClellan Summation Index Daily Chart

  • The SP 500 Percent of Stocks above the 50 dma is displaying a large participation of stocks in this rebound. In addition it is neither showing negative divergences nor it is overbought yet

S&P500 Percent of Stocks Above 50dma Chart

  • The McClellan Oscillator is overbought, hence a pullback is probable but the oscillator is not a good timer for tops.

NYSE McClellan Oscillator Daily Chart

  • The 10 dma of the Equity Put/Call ratio remains elevated compared to the level where recent price reversals have occurred

CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio Chart

 

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