• 9 hours Chinese Stocks Soar On Bullish Economic Data
  • 15 hours Apple’s “Holy Grail Of Data” Leaves Energy Traders Disappointed
  • 17 hours Gold Rally Adds $250 Billion To Top 50 Miners' Market Cap
  • 1 day TikTok Is Becoming A New Battleground For Tech Politics
  • 2 days Peru's Mining Industry Pummeled As Coronavirus Cases Surge
  • 2 days Why The World Is So Divided In Its COVID-19 Response
  • 2 days Equities Cheer Stellar Jobs Report, But It May Be Fleeting
  • 3 days Is Tech Billionaire Peter Thiel Done With Trump?
  • 4 days Musk Takes To Twitter To Troll The SEC
  • 5 days Lunar Mining May Commence As Early As 2025
  • 5 days Immigration Will Go Bust Without $1.2B Bailout
  • 6 days The Economics Of The Space Race
  • 7 days Why The World's Central Banks Aren't Yet Sold On Renewables
  • 7 days How Much More Cash Can Uber Burn?
  • 8 days Inside The Biggest Counterfeit Gold Scandal In Recent History
  • 8 days EU-U.S. Trade Relations Are Deteriorating
  • 8 days Over 184 Companies Have Bailed On Facebook
  • 9 days BP Sells Petrochemical Business For $5 Billion
  • 9 days U.S. Moves To Secure Domestic Rare Earth Supply
  • 9 days E-Commerce Explodes As Boomers Go Digital
What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Silver Breaks Lower - Gold and PM Stocks Set to Plunge...

Originally published February 28th, 2016 in the Various Reports Sector

In the latest Gold and Silver Market updates, posted last weekend, the view was expressed that an intermediate top was forming gold and silver, not a bull Flag as some were suggesting, and the latest COT data not only confirms this view, but suggests that a severe drop is imminent, and it already started in silver on Friday. Fortunately we exited most of our long positions in the sector, many at a handsome profit, over the past 2 weeks, having spotted the danger.

The latest 1-year chart for gold is - or should be - alarming for those still long the sector. It shows gold churning having hit a target after a parabolic slingshot move that resulted in it becoming heavily overbought. Now it is vulnerable to a reaction which the latest COTs suggest will be heavy. Breakdown from the parabola will likely lead to a dramatic plunge.

Gold 1-Year Chart

The latest gold COT chart, which may be directly compared to the 1-year gold chart above, because it also goes back a year, shows that Commercial short and Large Spec long positions exploded higher last week, the culmination of a multi-week exponential ramp. As the Commercials are collectively always right and the Large Specs wrong, this means trouble. This is characteristic of an important top, and gold is now expected to plunge, probably immediately.

Gold CoT

The long-term 6-year chart provides additional clues regarding why gold's sharp advance halted when it did - it had arrived at the upper boundary of the broad downtrend channel shown.

Gold 6-Year Chart

Turning to silver, the picture is considerably weaker, and is in fact dismal, although longer-term this should not be a cause for depression, as silver is normally weak compared to gold at this stage of the cycle. On its 1-year chart we can see that the recent rally was weak compared to the rally in gold - it did not even manage to rise much above its 200-day moving average, which did not turn up, and it failed to break out of the downtrend channel shown. Now it is breaking lower again, and latest COTs, which we will come to in a moment suggest that the reaction now starting will be severe, and take it to the lower boundary of the channel as a minimum downside objective.

Silver 1-Year Chart

The latest silver COTs are simply frightful, with the Commercials having built up a 7-year record short position. This was already the case last week, and this week it's even worse. These COTs suggest that silver is about to take a severe beating.

Silver CoT

The long-term 6-year chart reveals that silver's latest rally was in the end nothing more than "a flash in the pan" within its ongoing long-term downtrend, and the latest COTs point to new lows for silver soon.

Silver 6-Year Chart

Trying to unearth a fundamental explanation or reasons for what we are observing here is, as usual, a waste of time. Normally, by the time you find out, it's too late to do anything about it. Asked to speculate about possible explanations two things come to mind - the possible emergence soon of a coordinated global QE barrage that results in a Happy Days are here again mentality, as systemic stress eases for a while and the stockmarket rallies on the prospect of improved liquidity, which is what we have already observed as likely in yesterday's update on the site Broad Market update - Belay that Shorting Plan, and a realization by the "mad as hatters" Neocons, who are possessed by a drive to overpower Russia then China and take over the world, that starting a thermonuclear exchange with Russia over Syria is perhaps not such a good idea, since the Nuclear Winter that might result would probably affect them too. There is a tentative ceasefire in Syria at present, and hopefully the tensions will ease somewhat, which would of course be a negative for gold and silver.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment