• 3 hours Tesla Slashes Prices Again
  • 5 hours The Modern History Of Financial Entropy
  • 21 hours Italy’s Central Bank Embraces Sustainable Investing
  • 24 hours Trump Lifts Metals Tariffs To Cool Simmering Trade War
  • 1 day Researchers Push To Limit Space Mining
  • 1 day Could China Start Dumping U.S. Treasury Bonds?
  • 2 days Is Winter Coming For HBO?
  • 2 days Rise Of EVs Signals Peak Gasoline
  • 3 days Jeff Bezos Doubles Down On Space Colonization Ambitions
  • 3 days Gold Mining Stocks Stuck In Limbo
  • 4 days Executive Order Targets Huawei Over Espionage
  • 4 days Why Now May Be The Best Time Ever To Hold Gold
  • 5 days Fake News Sinks Shares In UK-Based Bank
  • 5 days De Beers To Build $468 Million Diamond Recovery Ship
  • 5 days Moody's: Turkey Faces Possible Credit Downgrade
  • 5 days Tesla's Solar Sales Are Slipping
  • 6 days Auto Industry To Get Temporary Tariff Relief
  • 6 days Welcome To The World’s Biggest Free Trade Area
  • 6 days Central Banks Are Stockpiling Gold At The Fastest Rate In Half A Decade
  • 6 days U.S.-China Impasse Threatens Rare Earth Trade
Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Stocks sold off last week…

How Millennials Are Reshaping Real Estate

How Millennials Are Reshaping Real Estate

The real estate market is…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Launch!

While at near-term risk, the gold sector is launching, not blowing off

Okay, the title of the post is a bit of a joke at this late stage of the rally because it sounds like hype and we have actually been calling the move in the gold sector a potential launch for weeks now, since gold and HUI each busted through their bear market limiters, the EMA 75 and EMA 55, respectively.

Gold and HUI Weekly Charts

That was four weeks ago. Today the hype is all around and the sector is going vertical and is indeed at high risk now. Big money is pouring into the sector right in line with the story the chart below and many other macro indicators have helped define. We have been following myriad indicators since last summer when we began a theme of illustrating the proper 'macrocosmic' fundamentals needed to launch the sector. Gold vs. S&P 500 is just one of them and it is now bullish, despite the current consolidation.

Gold:SPX Weekly Chart

Ah but we are at high risk now, right? Right. Some writers are on this theme and are probably correct in calling the sector's "blow off" a terminal thing. But only if they are talking about it being terminal for this move, not for upcoming bull market potential. Although I think the odds have shifted significantly in favor of the prospect that a bull has already begun, that will only be proven later when more technical milestones have been achieved.

In recent NFTRH reports and updates we have been talking about bear market rules vs. bull market rules. For instance, the Commitments of Traders data are very bearish right now for gold and silver. But there is historical precedent, which we covered in detail in NFTRH 384, showing a similar setup at the start of the bull market early last decade.

Some analysts have advised to beware the "blow off" in gold, which will bring on new lows. But due to the fundamental view having improved greatly over the last few months and due to the technical milestones like EMA 75 and EMA 55 for gold and HUI above, a coming correction can be considered a launch phase to a new bull market as opposed to a blow off and blow out phase to a bull (ref. silver in early 2011).

Any coming pullback will be one of opportunity as it stands now, barring a complete undoing of the fundamentals that have gathered so firmly over the last several months. It is advised that gold sector aficionados have pullback levels (i.e. key support levels) plotted out in advance for when their favorite miners are inevitably traded out by the momentum players now buying in. That is what we will be doing.

 


Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at NFTRH.com. Also, you can follow via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment