• 1,019 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 1,019 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 1,021 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,421 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,426 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,428 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,431 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,431 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,432 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,433 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,434 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,438 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,438 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,439 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,441 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,442 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,445 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,446 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,446 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,448 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings

Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings

Earnings season is well underway,…

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

Modern monetary theory has been…

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Imploding Pensions Take The Rest Of US Down With Them

It's the same story pretty much everywhere: Cities and states promised ridiculously generous (by today's standards) pensions to teachers, cops and firefighters, failed to sufficiently fund the plans and invested the money they did have very badly. And now the weight of the resulting unfunded obligations are crushing not just plan recipients but entire communities. Here's a representative case:

Oregon PERS unfunded liability swells to $21 billion

(KTVZ) - This week, Oregon's Public Employee Retirement System Board received an earnings report on the status of the PERS fund investment. The report said Oregon's PERS fund fell by 4 percent in 2015, a loss of nearly $3 billion -- and a Central Oregon lawmaker said that means major reforms are more urgent than ever.

"The blow to PERS from the Moro court case left Oregon with an additional $5 billion in unfunded liability," Sen. Tim Knopp, R-Bend, said Tuesday. "Now PERS is an additional $8 billion short of its target."

In that ruling nearly a year ago, the state Supreme Court overturned the vast majority of the PERS reform cost-saving provisions enacted by the 2013 Legislature.

The current unfunded PERS liability now exceeds $21 billion, up from $18 billion last year, he noted.

PERS Communications Director David Crossley said while the PERS fund earned just over 2 percent last year, it did not achieve the "assumed savings rate" of 7.75 percent, so the liability increased by about $3 billion.

He noted that PERS had positive earnings, but lost value because it pays out about $3.5 billion in benefits a year.

PERS rates for school districts and local governments will rise in July 2017, Knopp said, forcing school districts to lay off teachers, reduce school days, increase class sizes, and cut programs like art and PE. Local governments will also have to make cuts to public safety and other critical services.

This combination of worse-than-expected investment returns and legal barriers to cost savings is playing out across the country. See Fitch downgrades Chicago after "worst possible outcome" in state supreme court pension reform bid.

What follows -- "...forcing school districts to lay off teachers, reduce school days, increase class sizes, and cut programs like art and PE. Local governments will also have to make cuts to public safety and other critical services" -- is also playing out in most states and cities.

And this, remember, is at the tail end of an epic bull market in financial assets. If pension plans aren't fully funded now, they'll fall into an abyss in the coming correction.

The result: everyone gets poorer. Or more accurately, everyone discovers that they were never as rich as they thought they were, and that the down escalator they're on has a long way to go.

At the risk of belaboring the point, imploding pensions, like most other modern problems, can be traced back to easy money. Put a monetary printing press in the hands of government and the resulting corruption flows from Washington outward to every state capital and mayor's office. With interest rates artificially low and inflation artificially high, generating 8% returns as far as the eye can see looks not just possible, but easy. So promising benefits based on high rates of return seems reasonable to elected officials anxious to buy labor peace. And once the Ponzi scheme is in place, there's no way to turn it off without creating chaos.

The only solution (again at the risk of repetition) is to take the easy money program to its logical extreme and devalue the dollar by an amount large enough to make nominal pension benefits affordable. That's functionally the same as honestly cutting benefits and will impoverish everyone who doesn't own lots of real assets, but it will be easier to hide.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment