To me, there is a big difference between the average investor being bearish on the market which we typically see right at the end of a bear market when trillions have been lost because of falling stock prices. But, compared to those who are searching the keyword phrase in Google "bear market" at any given time I look at it as a leading indicator.
You see, I think people searching on Google for specific topics specifically "bear market" are not the average Joe investor who does nothing but ride the emotional and account value roller coaster as markets fluctuate and don't even know what a bear market is or even think to search it.
Instead, I feel those searching Google are the educated and active investors and trader who are the ones who create market trends and significant turning points in the market. These are people being proactive learning and adjusting their portfolios to avoid losing money and/or to profit generously during market downturns just as I do.
Stocks Are In A Bull Market When Google Tend Looks Like This:
The graph below shows different shades of blue. The lighter blue colors mean fewer searches for the term "bear market". This is when the educated traders are bullish on the market and continually buying more shares, thus supporting the market trend. The dark shaded states are where specific regions of people are more bearish than the rest of the states. When the chart looks like this (light blue) we expect higher prices in the stock market.
Stocks ENTERING A NEW BEAR MARKET If Google Tend Looks Like This:
Take a look at the two charts and graphs below. Both of these look very similar to each other. The one on the left shows us what the educated investor was thinking and doing with their money just before the bear market of 2008 and the final washout low in 2009.
Now, if you look at today's Google trend which is the image of the US on the right-hand side you will see both look very similar to each other. To add more depth to this analysis if we were to compare the market breadth and internals for the US stock market they are also very similar in nature. Both of these types of analysis combined paint a clear bearish picture for stocks looking forward 6 to 12 months from now.
Just look how much darker blue both of these charts are compared to that during a bull market when investors are putting new money into stocks, which is the first graph explained above.
Now let's look at the bottom of this image where you see the interest over time line chart for the number of searches on "bear market" in the USA. From what this data is telling us, we are days or weeks away from a significant market top in stocks and the start of something that will wipe-out most individuals life savings once again... This will be my third time experiencing this type of event as a trader - 2001 tech crash, 2008 financial crisis, and now the 2016 economic crash.
Concluding Thoughts:
In short, I feel the US stock market specifically the large-cap stocks are going to provide a huge opportunity for investors who understand what is happening and how to take advantage of it.
Google has provided us with some excellent information to help identify and time major market turning points for long-term investors and short-term active traders like you and me.
In 2008, we had a very similar situation set up in the market and I was able to generate life-changing returns from these moves, I should note there are two major plays here, not just one.
These incredible trade setups are a once in a decade opportunity and more money can be made during some of the roughest times in the stock market and economy if you know which simple trades to place and when to buy and sell.
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