• 2 days Oil Demand Falters On New Wave Of Lockdowns
  • 2 days Signal, Telegram Gain Ground As Social Censorship Breaks Headlines
  • 3 days Investors Should Be Worried About Tech Stocks
  • 5 days Battle For Market Share Intensifies In COVID Streaming War
  • 7 days Censorship Is Now Private, And That’s Scary
  • 10 days Markets Hit ‘Ignore’ Over Capitol Coup
  • 11 days Tesla’s China Strategy Is Yet Another ReasonTo Double Down
  • 13 days NYSE Reverses China Company Delisting Plans … For Now
  • 14 days The Dollar Could Remain Weak For Years To Come
  • 18 days The Simple Secret To Tesla-Like Gains
  • 18 days US-Listed China Stocks Have 3 Years To Become Transparent
  • 20 days $30,000 Is The New $20,000 For Bitcoin
  • 21 days Gold Slips Following Stimulus Announcement
  • 21 days Illegal Streaming Targeted In The 5,000 Page COVID-19 Stimulus Bill
  • 23 days Big Investors Are Dumping Gold For Bitcoin
  • 24 days The Most Exciting And Strange Energy Tech Of The Year
  • 25 days Morgan Stanley Sees Apple As Major Threat To Tesla’s Dominance
  • 26 days U.S. Lawmakers Pass $2.3 Trillion Relief Package
  • 27 days The Super-Rich Are Investing In “Pandemic Passports"
  • 28 days 5 Promising Stocks in 5 Different Sectors to Start the New Year
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

A Powerful Signal for the Coming Silver Rally

The silver price and the US Dollar/South African Rand exchange rate (USD/ZAR) have a very interesting relationship that goes back a long way. Due to the nature of this relationship, I have found the USD/ZAR chart to be a good tool for determining a silver bottom.

In Jan 1980, when silver peaked at about $50, the USD/ZAR was trading at around 0.817. Today, the USD/ZAR rate is trading at about 14.366 - about 17.6 times higher than the Jan 1980 rate, whereas silver is trading at $16.2 - almost three times lower than the Jan 1980 high.

So, in the long run, the two move in opposite directions. When the USD/ZAR rate is moving up, then the silver price is moving down, and vice versa. Furthermore, when the USS/ZAR rate is making a top, then a bottom in silver is normally very close (before or after the USD/ZAR peak).

In a related manner, the US Dollar Index provides a good signal for when gold rallies are coming.

Below is a basic short-term fractal analysis of the USD/ZAR chart (from fxstreet.com):

USD/ZAR Chart

On the chart I have highlighted two possible fractals (with points 1 to 5). The fractals are very similar (the angle is a bit different), and importantly appear during similar conditions (relative to a Dow peak). The second fractal appears to have reached point 5, which is a short-term top for the USD/ZAR chart, and very likely a long-term peak (since 1980).

If it is indeed a long term peak for the USD/ZAR rate, then one should expect a very important bottom for silver around that date. Silver did make a bottom on 14 December 2015, about a month before the USD/ZAR top. This silver bottom will likely proof to be the ultimate low before the coming multi-year rally.

Below, is another comparison (from my 12 Feb 2016 premium update), showing the relationship between USD/ZAR peaks and silver bottoms:

USD/ZAR Monthly Chart

On the chart (from tradingview.com), I have drawn blue lines at the 2001, 2008 and potential Jan 2016 USD/ZAR peaks. One can see how close to these peaks the 2001, 2008 and potential Dec 2015 silver bottoms were.

Given, the look of the Jan 2016 candlestick; it is likely that the USD/ZAR chart has peaked.

If it has indeed peaked, then there is a very strong likelihood that the December 2015 bottom in silver is actually the bottom since the 2011 peak. It is interesting to note that there is a 7-year interval between the silver bottoms.

Warm regards,

 


For more on this and this kind of fractal analysis, you are welcome to subscribe to my premium service. I have also recently completed a Silver Fractal Analysis Report as well as a Gold Fractal Analysis Report.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment