• 6 hours Bankruptcy Is The Only Choice For Many Retailers
  • 9 hours Are Copper Naysayers Missing The Big Picture?
  • 12 hours Jerome Powell's Impossible Challenge
  • 1 day Economists Call For Recession In 2021
  • 1 day Hong Kong Billionaire Loses Big On Canadian Energy Play
  • 2 days Trade Tensions Weigh On South Korea, Japan Relations
  • 2 days Lithium Hype Can't Live Up To Supply Realities
  • 3 days Tesla Scrambles To Salvage Its Stumbling Solar Business
  • 3 days Why Silicon Valley Is Moving To Toronto
  • 3 days Hong Kong Residents Are Fleeing To Taiwan At A Record Pace
  • 4 days Trickle Down Tax Cuts Aren't Helping Bolster GDP Growth
  • 4 days Wealth Gap Widens Between Baby Boomers And Millennials
  • 4 days How Investors Are Playing Uncertain Markets
  • 5 days Demand For Cash Is On The Rise
  • 5 days The Best Way To Ride The Gold Rally
  • 6 days Corn Industry Reeling After Shocking Ethanol Decision
  • 6 days Gold Miners Eye Further Upside
  • 7 days Alibaba Exec Sets Record With $3.5 Billion Brooklyn Nets Purchase
  • 7 days Smart Contracts: The Tech Reshaping Entire Industries
  • 8 days Protests Threaten $5 Billion Peruvian Copper Mine
Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Welcome to Art Basel: The…

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Stocks sold off last week…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

A Powerful Signal for the Coming Silver Rally

The silver price and the US Dollar/South African Rand exchange rate (USD/ZAR) have a very interesting relationship that goes back a long way. Due to the nature of this relationship, I have found the USD/ZAR chart to be a good tool for determining a silver bottom.

In Jan 1980, when silver peaked at about $50, the USD/ZAR was trading at around 0.817. Today, the USD/ZAR rate is trading at about 14.366 - about 17.6 times higher than the Jan 1980 rate, whereas silver is trading at $16.2 - almost three times lower than the Jan 1980 high.

So, in the long run, the two move in opposite directions. When the USD/ZAR rate is moving up, then the silver price is moving down, and vice versa. Furthermore, when the USS/ZAR rate is making a top, then a bottom in silver is normally very close (before or after the USD/ZAR peak).

In a related manner, the US Dollar Index provides a good signal for when gold rallies are coming.

Below is a basic short-term fractal analysis of the USD/ZAR chart (from fxstreet.com):

USD/ZAR Chart

On the chart I have highlighted two possible fractals (with points 1 to 5). The fractals are very similar (the angle is a bit different), and importantly appear during similar conditions (relative to a Dow peak). The second fractal appears to have reached point 5, which is a short-term top for the USD/ZAR chart, and very likely a long-term peak (since 1980).

If it is indeed a long term peak for the USD/ZAR rate, then one should expect a very important bottom for silver around that date. Silver did make a bottom on 14 December 2015, about a month before the USD/ZAR top. This silver bottom will likely proof to be the ultimate low before the coming multi-year rally.

Below, is another comparison (from my 12 Feb 2016 premium update), showing the relationship between USD/ZAR peaks and silver bottoms:

USD/ZAR Monthly Chart

On the chart (from tradingview.com), I have drawn blue lines at the 2001, 2008 and potential Jan 2016 USD/ZAR peaks. One can see how close to these peaks the 2001, 2008 and potential Dec 2015 silver bottoms were.

Given, the look of the Jan 2016 candlestick; it is likely that the USD/ZAR chart has peaked.

If it has indeed peaked, then there is a very strong likelihood that the December 2015 bottom in silver is actually the bottom since the 2011 peak. It is interesting to note that there is a 7-year interval between the silver bottoms.

Warm regards,

 


For more on this and this kind of fractal analysis, you are welcome to subscribe to my premium service. I have also recently completed a Silver Fractal Analysis Report as well as a Gold Fractal Analysis Report.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment