• 96 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 101 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 103 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 106 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 106 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 107 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 109 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 109 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 113 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 113 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 114 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 116 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 117 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 120 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 121 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 121 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 123 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  • 124 days Europe’s Economy Is On The Brink As Putin’s War Escalates
  • 127 days What’s Causing Inflation In The United States?
  • 128 days Intel Joins Russian Exodus as Chip Shortage Digs In
Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

A Powerful Signal for the Coming Silver Rally

The silver price and the US Dollar/South African Rand exchange rate (USD/ZAR) have a very interesting relationship that goes back a long way. Due to the nature of this relationship, I have found the USD/ZAR chart to be a good tool for determining a silver bottom.

In Jan 1980, when silver peaked at about $50, the USD/ZAR was trading at around 0.817. Today, the USD/ZAR rate is trading at about 14.366 - about 17.6 times higher than the Jan 1980 rate, whereas silver is trading at $16.2 - almost three times lower than the Jan 1980 high.

So, in the long run, the two move in opposite directions. When the USD/ZAR rate is moving up, then the silver price is moving down, and vice versa. Furthermore, when the USS/ZAR rate is making a top, then a bottom in silver is normally very close (before or after the USD/ZAR peak).

In a related manner, the US Dollar Index provides a good signal for when gold rallies are coming.

Below is a basic short-term fractal analysis of the USD/ZAR chart (from fxstreet.com):

USD/ZAR Chart

On the chart I have highlighted two possible fractals (with points 1 to 5). The fractals are very similar (the angle is a bit different), and importantly appear during similar conditions (relative to a Dow peak). The second fractal appears to have reached point 5, which is a short-term top for the USD/ZAR chart, and very likely a long-term peak (since 1980).

If it is indeed a long term peak for the USD/ZAR rate, then one should expect a very important bottom for silver around that date. Silver did make a bottom on 14 December 2015, about a month before the USD/ZAR top. This silver bottom will likely proof to be the ultimate low before the coming multi-year rally.

Below, is another comparison (from my 12 Feb 2016 premium update), showing the relationship between USD/ZAR peaks and silver bottoms:

USD/ZAR Monthly Chart

On the chart (from tradingview.com), I have drawn blue lines at the 2001, 2008 and potential Jan 2016 USD/ZAR peaks. One can see how close to these peaks the 2001, 2008 and potential Dec 2015 silver bottoms were.

Given, the look of the Jan 2016 candlestick; it is likely that the USD/ZAR chart has peaked.

If it has indeed peaked, then there is a very strong likelihood that the December 2015 bottom in silver is actually the bottom since the 2011 peak. It is interesting to note that there is a 7-year interval between the silver bottoms.

Warm regards,

 


For more on this and this kind of fractal analysis, you are welcome to subscribe to my premium service. I have also recently completed a Silver Fractal Analysis Report as well as a Gold Fractal Analysis Report.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment