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GDPNow Holds Steady at 0.3% as Low Inflation Adds to GDP, Housing Subtracts

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast remained at +0.3% following recent economic reports.

Today's grim housing report subtracted a bit from GDP, but the CPI which only rose 0.1% for the month added to GDP.

The net effect of the two cancelled out.

Latest forecast: 0.3 percent -- April 19, 2016

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 0.3 percent on April 19, unchanged from April 13. After last Thursday's Consumer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth ticked up from 1.8 percent to 1.9 percent. After this morning's report on new residential construction from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the forecast for real residential investment growth declined from 9.0 percent to 8.5 percent.


GDPNow History

GDPNow

Kudos to the Atlanta Fed for highlighting intermediate effects of economic reports on their charts.

It appears the CPI added roughly 0.1% to GDP while housing subtracted roughly 0.1% from GDP.


Housing Starts and Permits Plunge

For discussion of today's housing report, please see Housing Starts Plunge 8.8%, Permits Plunge 7.7%; Bloomberg Cites "Fundamental Strength"


What's in Your Basket?

Do you think prices are only up 0.9% on the year?

For my take, please see Diving Into the CPI: What's in Your Basket?

 

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