I was one of the few last week who said the stock market would fall on Friday. It has also fallen farther than even I expected. So what's next? The chart below shows a counter trend rally likely on Tuesday, perhaps back to 2049/50 SPX and then one more drop into June 30 to around 1926/27, for about a 9% total decline.
The whole pattern is bullish, once resolved. So now, when everyone is getting bearish, I'm starting to get bullish, but like I said, not just yet. I still see new highs by early Autumn of 2016 and then a late Fall decline of about 22%.
The gold stocks are looking toppy here and an (a) wave decline into late July looks forthcoming, followed by a failing "b" rally into late August or early September, then wave "c" down into late September just as the stock market should be topping.
Summary: The stock market looks like it is near an important bottom while gold stocks look to be near an important top. Late September should be the next important turning point for both markets.
Brad Gudgeon, editor and author of the BluStar Market Timer, is a market veteran of over 30 years. The subscription website is www.blustarmarkettimer.info
