"No warning can save people determined to grow suddently rich" - Lord Overstone

  • 10 mins Investors Up the Ante In $1.5B Uber Loan Deal
  • 2 hours Are Gold Miners Poised For A Breakout?
  • 4 hours Is The "Crypto Winter“ Over?
  • 6 hours China Says It Doesn’t Fear Trade War
  • 21 hours Twitter CEO: The World Will Have A Single Currency
  • 22 hours Asian Currency Correction Could Signal Looming Crisis
  • 23 hours Best Buy Drops Telecom Giant Over National Security Threat
  • 1 day The Pros And Cons Of The Federal Interest Rate Hike
  • 1 day Good News For Gold Bulls Despite Interest Rate Hike
  • 1 day Trump Hits China With $50 Billion In Tariffs
  • 1 day Russian Gold Reserves Hit Record High Amid Rising Tensions With West
  • 1 day Stocks Pull Back Following Interest Rate Hike
  • 2 days Will Regulatory Rollbacks Make Banks 'Too Big To Fail?'
  • 2 days Elon Musk’s $2.6 Billion Tesla Challenge
  • 2 days Tech Giants Could Be First Victims Of U.S. Trade War
  • 2 days Dow Gains Despite Fed’s Rate Hike
  • 2 days The Biggest Threat To Chinese Oil Futures
  • 2 days Spending Bill Could Cause U.S. Debt To Soar To 99% Of GDP
  • 2 days Precious Metals Slide Ahead Of Fed’s Interest Rate Decision
  • 2 days China’s Soft Power Grab May Be Bad News For Emerging Economies
The App That Democratized Trading Is Now Worth $5B

The App That Democratized Trading Is Now Worth $5B

Investors and customers have rallied…

Trump's Trade War Nears Boiling Point

Trump's Trade War Nears Boiling Point

Trump’s trade war appears to…

Are Gold Miners Poised For A Breakout?

Are Gold Miners Poised For A Breakout?

Sooner or later, stock prices…

Chinese Day Traders Fuel Rally in Silver says Saxo Bank

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank says Chinese day traders are what's behind the limit move up on silver, yesterday.

Please consider Chinese Day traders Love Silver -- As Long it Behaves.

Crowd of Chinese


  • Silver surged to a two-year high Monday before the rally hit a wall above $21/oz

  • Precious metal was up nearly 50% year-to-date at its intraday peak

  • Surge occurred in Asian session as commodity trading venues in China proliferate

  • Silver's rise mirrors a similar surge in steel rebar and iron ore futures in April

  • Silver unlikely to repeat the extent of the April correction for steel and iron futures

The biggest two-day surge in silver since 2011 has raised a few questions about the sustainability of the current rally and what is driving it.

Speculative positions held by hedge funds in both gold and silver have reached record levels while demand for exchange-traded products especially those in gold have continued to rise on an almost daily basis.

The 13% bottom-to-top rally from Friday to Monday in silver could represent a short-term top in the market, not least considering the 44% year-to-date rally seen already. During the rally in Asia Monday, several major stop levels got hit on Comex silver which could indicate that many short positions have now been flushed out.

It was not a coincidence that the Monday surge occured during Asian trading hours. When it comes to commodity trading, the Asian session was often in the past a period of tranquility with limited market action.

During the past week, volumes have spiked to levels last seen during the April frenzy. What happened Monday was that silver fairly quickly went limit up at the 6% daily cap in response to the strong COMEX close on Friday. This helped trigger a spill over surge on Comex silver which went through several major stop levels before retracing after hitting a two-year high above $21.

The fact that the traded volume goes up while the open interest goes down is a clear indication that day traders have taken over for now. As long this continues, we are likely to see bigger daily price swings with the Asian session seeing most of this.

Do these observations lead to a warning that silver could be in for a collapse similar to that in iron ore and steel rebar? No is probably the shortest answer. Silver is a much more globally traded commodity than some of the other futures currently available for trading in China.

The latest surge has triggered a great deal of attention and with both XAGUSD and XAUXAG reaching and temporarily breaching their technical extension levels, further upside now hinges on the support from a continued rally in gold.

The XAUXAG ratio completed the extension of the March to April move yesterday when the ratio temporarily hit a low around 64.2. With the ten-year average at 60, silver is no longer as cheap as it was back in March when it hit 84.

On that basis, continued demand for precious metals should see silver continue to outperform but at a much slower pace with the relative value increasingly coming back into line with longer-term averages.

Silver Weekly Chart

Weekly Silver Chart


Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment

Sign Up For The Safehaven Newsletter