• 4 days Quantum Computing Is The Newest Megatrend In Silicon Valley
  • 5 days How To Invest In The Cybersecurity Boom
  • 7 days Investors Are Patient With Unprofitable Giants
  • 9 days Wells Fargo Back In The Scandal Spotlight Once Again
  • 11 days 5 Stocks To Keep A Close Eye On This Year
  • 12 days As Auto Giants Flail, Look To Chip Stocks For Gains
  • 13 days Central America Is Ready For The Bitcoin Hustle
  • 15 days China’s Video Game Restrictions Unlikely To Slow Down Booming Industry
  • 16 days Top Performing Stocks As Inflation Fears Grow
  • 17 days US Airline Stocks Take A Beating On New EU Restrictions
  • 18 days This IPO Could Open Sustainable Fashion Floodgates
  • 19 days Crypto Crime Nets Another $2B Fraudster
  • 21 days This Week’s Hottest Meme Stocks
  • 22 days Why World Markets Should Be Watching Germany Closely
  • 24 days Could ‘Cultured’ Meat Rival The Plant-Based Megatrend?
  • 27 days ‘Easy Money’: Crypto Is Still Attracting Newbie Investors
  • 28 days Foreign Syndicates May Have Stolen Up To $400B In COVID Benefits
  • 29 days Gold Jumps Above $1800 Ahead Of Jackson Hole Summit
  • 29 days International Banks Blacklist Afghanistan Following Taliban Takeover
  • 31 days China’s Tycoons Are Getting A Serious Reality Check
Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Technical Market Report for July 23, 2016

The good news is:
• The blue chip indices and the S&P mid cap index closed at all time highs last week.


The Negatives

The blue chip indices have been hitting new highs while the secondaries are trading well off their all time highs.


The positives

The market has come through a seasonally weak period with good strength in the breadth indicators

The secondaries while still below their all time highs, have been outperforming the blue chips for the past several months.

The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NASDAQ new highs divided by new highs + new lows (OTC HL Ratio), in red. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator, the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level.

OTC HL Ratio was down for the week, but finished at a very strong 81%.

OTC and OTC HL Ratio Chart

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and NY HL Ratio, in blue, has been calculated from NYSE data.

NY HL Ratio remained at a sensationally high 98%.

SPX and NY HL Ratio Chart

The next chart shows the OTC in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NASDAQ new highs (OTC NH) in green.

OTC NH remained very strong.

OTC and OTC NH Chart

The next chart is similar to the one above except is shows the SPX in red and NY NH has been calculated from NYSE data.

NY NH declined last week, but remains at a very comfortable level.

SPX and NY NH Chart


Seasonality

Next week includes the last 5 trading days of July during the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis for that period.

OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2015 while SPX data runs from 1928 to 2015. There are summaries for both the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined.

Average returns for the coming week have been mostly positive and stronger during the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle than other years.

Report for the last 5 days of July.
The number following the year represents its position in the Presidential Cycle.
The number following the daily return represents the day of the week;
1 = Monday, 2 = Tuesday etc.

OTC Presidential Year 4
  Day5 Day4 Day3 Day2 Day1 Totals
1964-4 -0.02% 1 -0.34% 2 0.02% 3 0.05% 4 0.10% 5 -0.19%
1968-4 -1.00% 2 -0.84% 4 -1.41% 5 0.21% 1 -1.28% 2 -4.31%
1972-4 -0.23% 2 0.14% 3 -0.23% 4 -0.16% 5 -0.31% 1 -0.79%
 
1976-4 -0.13% 1 -0.20% 2 -0.32% 3 -0.18% 4 0.48% 5 -0.34%
1980-4 -0.17% 5 0.23% 1 0.61% 2 0.74% 3 -0.30% 4 1.11%
1984-4 -0.19% 3 0.78% 4 0.99% 5 -0.15% 1 0.33% 2 1.75%
1988-4 -0.06% 1 -0.34% 2 -0.64% 3 0.20% 4 0.85% 5 0.00%
1992-4 -0.16% 1 1.22% 2 1.03% 3 0.23% 4 0.35% 5 2.67%
Avg -0.14% 0.34% 0.33% 0.17% 0.34% 1.04%
 
1996-4 1.92% 4 1.60% 5 -1.20% 1 0.52% 2 0.80% 3 3.64%
2000-4 1.21% 2 -1.04% 3 -3.65% 4 -4.66% 5 2.84% 1 -5.31%
2004-4 -0.54% 1 1.64% 2 -0.58% 3 1.23% 4 0.33% 5 2.07%
2008-4 1.33% 5 -2.00% 1 2.45% 2 0.44% 3 -0.18% 4 2.03%
2012-4 -0.31% 3 1.37% 4 2.24% 5 -0.41% 1 -0.21% 2 2.67%
Avg 0.72% 0.31% -0.15% -0.58% 0.72% 1.02%
 
OTC summary for Presidential Year 4 1964 - 2012
Averages 0.13% 0.17% -0.05% -0.15% 0.29% 0.39%
% Winners 23% 54% 46% 62% 62% 62%
MDD 7/28/2000 9.10% -- 7/30/1968 4.25% -- 7/28/2008 2.00%
 
OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2015
Averages 0.01% 0.04% -0.11% 0.00% -0.05% -0.10%
% Winners 53% 47% 45% 62% 49% 58%
MDD 7/28/2000 9.10% -- 7/31/1974 6.22% -- 7/31/1969 4.97%
 
SPX Presidential Year 4
  Day5 Day4 Day3 Day2 Day1 Totals
1928-4 0.21% 4 0.94% 5 0.26% 6 0.00% 1 -0.21% 2 1.20%
1932-4 -1.46% 2 5.00% 3 3.17% 4 3.08% 5 1.16% 6 10.95%
 
1936-4 1.00% 1 -6.38% 2 5.56% 3 0.38% 4 -1.06% 5 -0.51%
1940-4 0.50% 5 0.40% 6 0.70% 1 2.48% 2 -0.39% 3 3.70%
1944-4 -0.23% 3 0.00% 4 -0.55% 5 0.00% 6 0.08% 1 -0.70%
1948-4 -0.92% 1 1.05% 2 -0.68% 3 -0.80% 4 -1.25% 5 -2.59%
1952-4 -0.32% 5 0.16% 1 0.24% 2 0.44% 3 0.12% 4 0.63%
Avg 0.01% -0.95% 1.05% 0.50% -0.50% 0.11%
 
1956-4 0.22% 3 0.08% 4 -0.81% 5 -0.16% 1 0.80% 2 0.13%
1960-4 -0.99% 1 0.61% 2 -0.62% 3 0.74% 4 1.72% 5 1.46%
1964-4 -0.46% 1 -0.28% 2 0.08% 3 0.21% 4 0.11% 5 -0.33%
1968-4 -0.12% 2 -1.28% 4 0.41% 5 -0.70% 1 0.09% 2 -1.60%
1972-4 -0.30% 2 -0.07% 3 -0.23% 4 0.09% 5 0.01% 1 -0.49%
Avg -0.33% -0.19% -0.23% 0.03% 0.55% -0.17%
 
1976-4 0.01% 1 -0.57% 2 -0.42% 3 -0.12% 4 0.50% 5 -0.59%
1980-4 -0.83% 5 0.54% 1 0.80% 2 -0.14% 3 -0.46% 4 -0.09%
1984-4 0.68% 3 0.84% 4 0.74% 5 -0.66% 1 0.31% 2 1.91%
1988-4 0.45% 1 0.19% 2 -1.01% 3 1.34% 4 2.26% 5 3.22%
1992-4 -0.01% 1 1.45% 2 1.13% 3 0.40% 4 0.07% 5 3.04%
Avg 0.06% 0.49% 0.25% 0.16% 0.53% 1.50%
 
1996-4 0.72% 4 0.75% 5 -0.79% 1 0.69% 2 0.74% 3 2.11%
2000-4 0.69% 2 -1.50% 3 -0.19% 4 -2.05% 5 0.77% 1 -2.27%
2004-4 -0.20% 1 0.99% 2 0.05% 3 0.46% 4 0.12% 5 1.42%
2008-4 0.42% 5 -1.86% 1 2.34% 2 1.67% 3 -1.31% 4 1.25%
2012-4 -0.03% 3 1.65% 4 1.91% 5 -0.05% 1 -0.43% 2 3.05%
Avg 0.32% 0.01% 0.66% 0.14% -0.02% 1.11%
 
SPX summary for Presidential Year 4 1928 - 2012
Averages -0.04% 0.12% 0.55% 0.33% 0.17% 1.13%
% Winners 45% 64% 59% 55% 68% 59%
MDD 7/28/1936 6.38% -- 7/28/2000 3.70% -- 7/30/1948 2.70%
 
SPX summary for all years 1928 - 2015
Averages -0.05% 0.04% 0.09% 0.15% 0.05% 0.27%
% Winners 55% 57% 52% 62% 60% 57%
MDD 7/26/1934 7.83% -- 7/31/1933 6.84% -- 7/31/1974 6.68%


Conclusion

Last week was encouraging. The breadth indicators held up well while prices weakened a little.

I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday July 29 than they were on Friday July 22.

Last weeks negative forecast was a miss.

This report is free to anyone who wants it, so please tell your friends. They can sign up at: http://www.stockmarket-ta.com/signup.html. If it is not for you, reply with REMOVE in the subject line.

These reports are archived at: http://www.safehaven.com/

Good Luck,

YTD W 12 / L 14 / T 3

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment