• 8 hours Who Will Pay For The $40 Trillion Energy Transition?
  • 1 day Why Chinese Rare Earth Prices Are Soaring
  • 2 days 2021 Could Be A Huge Year For Chinese Stocks
  • 3 days Shadowy Brokers Target Easy TikTok Money In New Scheme
  • 4 days Cannabis Sales Are Soaring In The United States
  • 5 days Biden Will Be A Boon For Solar Stocks
  • 6 days The Shroom Boom Is Here To Stay
  • 9 days The Gold Rally Has Finally Run Out Of Steam
  • 9 days Citibank Analyst Predicts $300k Bitcoin By End Of 2021
  • 12 days Bitcoin Lives Up To Its Safe Haven Status In A Big Way
  • 12 days 14 Million People Will Lose Unemployment Benefits On December 31st
  • 14 days Why 12 Million American Millionaires Isn’t Good News
  • 15 days Big Oil Is Paying The Price For Investing In Renewables
  • 16 days The Banking Industry’s $35 Billion Gravy Train Could Disappear
  • 17 days Did Amazon Just Democratize Prescription Drugs?
  • 18 days The Private Space Race Just Got Very Real
  • 20 days Short Sellers Are Willing Big In This Turbulent Market
  • 21 days SpaceX Gets Go-Ahead To Send Humans Into Space
  • 22 days Saudi Arabia Lost $27 Billion In Oil Crash
  • 23 days China’s Big Tech Takes A Hit As Regulators Crack Down
How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Technical Market Report for July 23, 2016

The good news is:
• The blue chip indices and the S&P mid cap index closed at all time highs last week.


The Negatives

The blue chip indices have been hitting new highs while the secondaries are trading well off their all time highs.


The positives

The market has come through a seasonally weak period with good strength in the breadth indicators

The secondaries while still below their all time highs, have been outperforming the blue chips for the past several months.

The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NASDAQ new highs divided by new highs + new lows (OTC HL Ratio), in red. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator, the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level.

OTC HL Ratio was down for the week, but finished at a very strong 81%.

OTC and OTC HL Ratio Chart

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and NY HL Ratio, in blue, has been calculated from NYSE data.

NY HL Ratio remained at a sensationally high 98%.

SPX and NY HL Ratio Chart

The next chart shows the OTC in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NASDAQ new highs (OTC NH) in green.

OTC NH remained very strong.

OTC and OTC NH Chart

The next chart is similar to the one above except is shows the SPX in red and NY NH has been calculated from NYSE data.

NY NH declined last week, but remains at a very comfortable level.

SPX and NY NH Chart


Seasonality

Next week includes the last 5 trading days of July during the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis for that period.

OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2015 while SPX data runs from 1928 to 2015. There are summaries for both the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined.

Average returns for the coming week have been mostly positive and stronger during the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle than other years.

Report for the last 5 days of July.
The number following the year represents its position in the Presidential Cycle.
The number following the daily return represents the day of the week;
1 = Monday, 2 = Tuesday etc.

OTC Presidential Year 4
  Day5 Day4 Day3 Day2 Day1 Totals
1964-4 -0.02% 1 -0.34% 2 0.02% 3 0.05% 4 0.10% 5 -0.19%
1968-4 -1.00% 2 -0.84% 4 -1.41% 5 0.21% 1 -1.28% 2 -4.31%
1972-4 -0.23% 2 0.14% 3 -0.23% 4 -0.16% 5 -0.31% 1 -0.79%
 
1976-4 -0.13% 1 -0.20% 2 -0.32% 3 -0.18% 4 0.48% 5 -0.34%
1980-4 -0.17% 5 0.23% 1 0.61% 2 0.74% 3 -0.30% 4 1.11%
1984-4 -0.19% 3 0.78% 4 0.99% 5 -0.15% 1 0.33% 2 1.75%
1988-4 -0.06% 1 -0.34% 2 -0.64% 3 0.20% 4 0.85% 5 0.00%
1992-4 -0.16% 1 1.22% 2 1.03% 3 0.23% 4 0.35% 5 2.67%
Avg -0.14% 0.34% 0.33% 0.17% 0.34% 1.04%
 
1996-4 1.92% 4 1.60% 5 -1.20% 1 0.52% 2 0.80% 3 3.64%
2000-4 1.21% 2 -1.04% 3 -3.65% 4 -4.66% 5 2.84% 1 -5.31%
2004-4 -0.54% 1 1.64% 2 -0.58% 3 1.23% 4 0.33% 5 2.07%
2008-4 1.33% 5 -2.00% 1 2.45% 2 0.44% 3 -0.18% 4 2.03%
2012-4 -0.31% 3 1.37% 4 2.24% 5 -0.41% 1 -0.21% 2 2.67%
Avg 0.72% 0.31% -0.15% -0.58% 0.72% 1.02%
 
OTC summary for Presidential Year 4 1964 - 2012
Averages 0.13% 0.17% -0.05% -0.15% 0.29% 0.39%
% Winners 23% 54% 46% 62% 62% 62%
MDD 7/28/2000 9.10% -- 7/30/1968 4.25% -- 7/28/2008 2.00%
 
OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2015
Averages 0.01% 0.04% -0.11% 0.00% -0.05% -0.10%
% Winners 53% 47% 45% 62% 49% 58%
MDD 7/28/2000 9.10% -- 7/31/1974 6.22% -- 7/31/1969 4.97%
 
SPX Presidential Year 4
  Day5 Day4 Day3 Day2 Day1 Totals
1928-4 0.21% 4 0.94% 5 0.26% 6 0.00% 1 -0.21% 2 1.20%
1932-4 -1.46% 2 5.00% 3 3.17% 4 3.08% 5 1.16% 6 10.95%
 
1936-4 1.00% 1 -6.38% 2 5.56% 3 0.38% 4 -1.06% 5 -0.51%
1940-4 0.50% 5 0.40% 6 0.70% 1 2.48% 2 -0.39% 3 3.70%
1944-4 -0.23% 3 0.00% 4 -0.55% 5 0.00% 6 0.08% 1 -0.70%
1948-4 -0.92% 1 1.05% 2 -0.68% 3 -0.80% 4 -1.25% 5 -2.59%
1952-4 -0.32% 5 0.16% 1 0.24% 2 0.44% 3 0.12% 4 0.63%
Avg 0.01% -0.95% 1.05% 0.50% -0.50% 0.11%
 
1956-4 0.22% 3 0.08% 4 -0.81% 5 -0.16% 1 0.80% 2 0.13%
1960-4 -0.99% 1 0.61% 2 -0.62% 3 0.74% 4 1.72% 5 1.46%
1964-4 -0.46% 1 -0.28% 2 0.08% 3 0.21% 4 0.11% 5 -0.33%
1968-4 -0.12% 2 -1.28% 4 0.41% 5 -0.70% 1 0.09% 2 -1.60%
1972-4 -0.30% 2 -0.07% 3 -0.23% 4 0.09% 5 0.01% 1 -0.49%
Avg -0.33% -0.19% -0.23% 0.03% 0.55% -0.17%
 
1976-4 0.01% 1 -0.57% 2 -0.42% 3 -0.12% 4 0.50% 5 -0.59%
1980-4 -0.83% 5 0.54% 1 0.80% 2 -0.14% 3 -0.46% 4 -0.09%
1984-4 0.68% 3 0.84% 4 0.74% 5 -0.66% 1 0.31% 2 1.91%
1988-4 0.45% 1 0.19% 2 -1.01% 3 1.34% 4 2.26% 5 3.22%
1992-4 -0.01% 1 1.45% 2 1.13% 3 0.40% 4 0.07% 5 3.04%
Avg 0.06% 0.49% 0.25% 0.16% 0.53% 1.50%
 
1996-4 0.72% 4 0.75% 5 -0.79% 1 0.69% 2 0.74% 3 2.11%
2000-4 0.69% 2 -1.50% 3 -0.19% 4 -2.05% 5 0.77% 1 -2.27%
2004-4 -0.20% 1 0.99% 2 0.05% 3 0.46% 4 0.12% 5 1.42%
2008-4 0.42% 5 -1.86% 1 2.34% 2 1.67% 3 -1.31% 4 1.25%
2012-4 -0.03% 3 1.65% 4 1.91% 5 -0.05% 1 -0.43% 2 3.05%
Avg 0.32% 0.01% 0.66% 0.14% -0.02% 1.11%
 
SPX summary for Presidential Year 4 1928 - 2012
Averages -0.04% 0.12% 0.55% 0.33% 0.17% 1.13%
% Winners 45% 64% 59% 55% 68% 59%
MDD 7/28/1936 6.38% -- 7/28/2000 3.70% -- 7/30/1948 2.70%
 
SPX summary for all years 1928 - 2015
Averages -0.05% 0.04% 0.09% 0.15% 0.05% 0.27%
% Winners 55% 57% 52% 62% 60% 57%
MDD 7/26/1934 7.83% -- 7/31/1933 6.84% -- 7/31/1974 6.68%


Conclusion

Last week was encouraging. The breadth indicators held up well while prices weakened a little.

I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday July 29 than they were on Friday July 22.

Last weeks negative forecast was a miss.

This report is free to anyone who wants it, so please tell your friends. They can sign up at: http://www.stockmarket-ta.com/signup.html. If it is not for you, reply with REMOVE in the subject line.

These reports are archived at: http://www.safehaven.com/

Good Luck,

YTD W 12 / L 14 / T 3

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment