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The Colombian Peso Going Higher

The Colombian peso has increased value against the US dollar as laid out in previous analysis, The Colombian Peso!, produced on 21st February 2016 when the USDCOP was trading at 3.358,500. Price is now 2.974,000.

I expect the USDCOP currency pair to continue its decline so let’s review the daily chart.

USD/COP Daily Chart

USD/COP Daily Chart

Price has recently formed a triple top denoted by the numbers 1, 2 and 3. This is a bearish triple top as it is with the trend and therefore new lows should be expected.

I have drawn a Fibonacci Fan from the top to swing low. This shows some nice price symmetry with the first top at resistance retroactively from the 23.6% angle, the second top at resistance from the 61.8% angle while the most recent third top at resistance from the 76.4% angle. I now expect price to trade to new lows with a test of support from the 61.8% angle to occur later down the track.

The Bollinger Bands show price is back at the middle band and price may do some work around this band before continuing on down.

The 100 (red) and 200 (black) daily moving averages are in bearish formation with the black line providing formidable resistance each time price gets back to it.

The RSI is weak while the MACD indicator is bearish.

Summing up, there is no change to the previous bearish USDCOP forecast. I expect the Colombian peso to continue its good run.


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