• 12 hours Trump Was Right About The Dollar
  • 15 hours Is Silver Gearing Up For A Rally?
  • 18 hours World’s Largest Hedge Fund Turns Bullish On Gold
  • 20 hours It’s Time To Spend More On Clean Energy R&D
  • 1 day Contrarian Investors Are Beating The Stock Market
  • 2 days Bulgaria’s Revenue Agency Falls Victim To Biggest Cyber Heist In History
  • 2 days Amazon Faces European Union Anti-Trust Probe
  • 2 days Commodities Are Having A Stellar Year
  • 2 days Bezos’ Next Big Project Could Be Worth $100 Billion Per Year
  • 3 days 3,600 Years Later, Climate Change Turns Mammoths Into $40M Market
  • 3 days Tesla, Apple Claim China Is Stealing Intellectual Property
  • 3 days EV Giants Duke It Out For Battery Dominance
  • 4 days Tech Billionaire Takes Aim At Google
  • 4 days Chinese Police Bust Largest Ever Illicit Crypto Mining Operation
  • 4 days Expect A Pullback Before Gold's Next Major Rally
  • 4 days Why Interest On Gold Matters
  • 4 days Ten Extravagant Food Items For The Wealthy Only
  • 5 days Why Saudi Arabia Won't Give Up On The Aramco IPO
  • 5 days $32 Million Crypto Heist Halts Tokyo Exchange
  • 6 days Is A Gold Selloff Looming?
Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Stocks sold off last week…

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

Modern monetary theory has been…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Wile E Coyote Gravity Report

Another week without much major price action, gold +$16 and silver +$0.12. At least if you look at the closing prices. However on Monday after New York market hours, there was quite a spike in silver. The close was $17.46. The price was up 10 cents by midnight in New York. By the morning before the open on Wednesday, the price was up another 20 cents, to $17.77.

We're pretty sure that it had nothing to do with leaked emails from Hillary Clinton. However, it might have had something to do with the housing starts data release. Whatever the cause of this speculative wave, it was over by late Thursday.

The weak fundamentals reasserted themselves on silver, like gravity always does to Wile E Coyote when he runs off a cliff into thin air. Are those fundamentals changing?

Read on for the only true picture of the fundamentals of the monetary metals. But first, here's the graph of the metals' prices.

The Prices of Gold and Silver

Prices of Gold and Silver

Next, this is a graph of the gold price measured in silver, otherwise known as the gold to silver ratio. It rose this week.

The Ratio of the Gold Price to the Silver Price

Ratio of the Gold Price to the Silver Price

For each metal, we will look at a graph of the basis and cobasis overlaid with the price of the dollar in terms of the respective metal. It will make it easier to provide brief commentary. The dollar will be represented in green, the basis in blue and cobasis in red.

Here is the gold graph.

The Gold Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price

Gold Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price

Gold's scarcity (i.e. red line, cobasis) is up this week, while the price of the dollar (i.e. green line, the inverse of the price of gold) is down. Not a lot, but a small sign of buying of metal as opposed to futures that has been the pattern for a while.

Further divergence, with falling dollar and rising gold cobasis would be bearish for the dollar (which most people equate to bullish for gold).

Now let's look at silver.

The Silver Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price

Silver Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price

Look at that. Big rise in the cobasis, while dollar falls slightly. Also, note the crossover of the basis and cobasis on Friday. Part of this is the approach of expiration. Both gold and silver contracts tend to move towards backwardation as they approach expiry (proof that it's the longs, not the shorts, who are naked and must cover before First Notice Day). And silver does it more than gold, due to its inferior liquidity.

Still, this is something different than we've seen recently, as is readily apparent on the chart above. Premature to try to trade it, and the fundamental of silver is still well below market (though if you're short silver against gold, you might close the position and take profits as we did on Friday at a gold-silver ratio of 72.4).

Our calculated fundamental prices: gold=$1247, silver=$15.69, ratio=79.5.

The big question this week: does the buying of metal remain strong, or is this just another flash in the pan?

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment