In Part One of this article I discussed the arrival of Grey Champions in previous Fourth Turnings; their attributes, deficiencies, and leadership skills; and why Donald Trump is the Grey Champion of this Fourth Turning - whether you like it or not. Now I will try to make sense of what could happen next.
"Our movement is about replacing a failed and corrupt political establishment with a new government controlled by you, the American people. The establishment has trillions of dollars at stake in this election. For those who control the levers of power in Washington and for the global special interests, they partner with these people that don't have your good in mind. The political establishment that is trying to stop us is the same group responsible for our disastrous trade deals, massive illegal immigration and economic and foreign policies that have bled our country dry.
It's a global power structure that is responsible for the economic decisions that have robbed our working class, stripped our country of its wealth and put that money into the pockets of a handful of large corporations and political entities. The only thing that can stop this corrupt machine is you. The only force strong enough to save our country is us. The only people brave enough to vote out this corrupt establishment is you, the American people." - Donald Trump
Seventy year old Donald Trump has assumed the Grey Champion flagstaff. In an increasingly chaotic world, normal working class Americans in flyover country were seeking a leader who could bring order, defeat the corrupt establishment, make tough decisions, and capture the zeitgeist of this moment in history. The ruling elite oligarchs and their fawning minions, occupying their strongholds in New York, California, Illinois, and D.C., are infuriated the peasants have dared to resist. In their secretive secure spaces, the elites are plotting with one purpose in mind - this uprising must be quelled.
They are now fanning the flames of discontent, funding professional protestors, and convincing the useful idiot college student millennials, Trump is dangerous to their future. It seems these mathematically challenged snowflakes have already forgotten about the $10 trillion of national debt and $1 trillion of student loan debt loaded on their backs by the Obama administration in the last 8 years. This is not to mention the $200 trillion of unfunded welfare liabilities awaiting them as they graduate with degrees in LGBT Studies and great jobs at TGI Fridays in their future.
As the legacy corporate mainstream media outlets hyperventilate over Trump going to dinner without informing them, while scorning and ridiculing his cabinet selections (even when he hasn't made them yet), this Fourth Turning chaotically churns towards its inevitable bloody climax. The current violence in the streets may be Soros funded domestic terrorism, but it still creates more anger, bitterness, and further unwillingness to compromise or meet in the middle.
This country is manifestly divided between red and blue, with the red geographically occupying 85% of the country and blue centered in the liberal urban bastions of corruption. There are multiple civil wars brewing below the surface, between the establishment and the people; left versus right; rural versus urban; Wall Street and Main Street; and the haves versus the have nots. It hasn't turned particularly bloody - YET.
It appears Trump's cabinet will be filled with establishment insiders. Many of his supporters will be disappointed. The daily minutia flogged by the 24 hour cable news propaganda machines is meaningless in the broad expanse of a twenty year Fourth Turning Crisis. Every president ends up with Washington insiders in their cabinet. At the end of the day, it's the president who sets the policy, decides what to prioritize, and sets the agenda for the nation. In the case of a Grey Champion assuming command in the midst of a Fourth Turning, events and his response to such events will dictate the course of the country and most likely the world for the next four or eight years.
The market reaction to Trump's ascendancy has a stench about it. On election night futures dropped 800 points, but markets turned positive the next morning and haven't looked back since. The stock market hovers at all-time highs. It's almost as if the big swinging dicks on Wall Street decided to send a message - they are still in charge. It doesn't matter who's in the oval office, Wall Street calls the shots. If you cooperate and do as you're told, the markets will ascend. If you attempt to implement any policy they don't like, a crash will be manufactured (ex. TARP rejection by Congress). The currency and bond markets are in turmoil across the globe. Something is clearly getting ready to blow.
You can ignore the day to day gyrations, as the three core elements of this Crisis - debt, civic decay, global disorder - will produce a chain reaction implosion during Trump's reign of power. The national debt is on automatic pilot to breach $1 trillion per year for as far as the eye can see. A $1 trillion infrastructure plan, rebuilding the military, building walls, massive tax cuts, trade wars and no spending cuts are a recipe for fiscal disaster. Trump's advisors seem to be following Dick Cheney's advice that deficits don't matter. Steve Bannon's documentary - Generation Zero - was based on the Fourth Turning, so you would think he would understand what's coming next.
Interest on the national debt was $433 billion in FY16. That colossal amount was with a near record low weighted interest rate of 2.2%. In case you haven't noticed the 10 Year Treasury rate has skyrocketed from 1.32% in July to 2.36% today. A 1% increase in rates across the yield curve will result in a 50% increase in interest on the national debt to $650 billion. Soc Gen's Albert Edwards believes the current bond route could drive the 10 Year Treasury rate to 3.25%. That would blow a hole in our annual deficits. Isn't leverage great?
The housing market was already rolling over due to high prices and stagnant household incomes. With mortgage rates jumping by 1% and possibly more, housing bubble 2.0 meets pin 2.0. Auto loan defaults were already surging, as every Tom, Shaniqua, and Julio in America got a new vehicle with a low payment lease or 7 year 0% loan. Over 25% of all student loans are not being repaid. The stock market bubble has been sustained by corporate CEOs borrowing to buy back their stock at all-time highs. Their corporate earnings have been falling for several quarters in a row and now the interest rates on their record levels of debt are going higher.
In addition, the USD is now at a 13 year high, up 10% since May and 30% since mid-2014. This will further weaken the profits of our global conglomerates. Making America great again by bringing back manufacturing jobs will be DOA if the USD keeps rising. It just so happens earnings are falling with interest rates and currency rising, when stock market valuations are at record highs. The euphoria of the Trump victory will be short lived as the country officially enters recession and the stock market drops by 30% or more within the next year.
The civic decay already proliferating during and after the election will be exacerbated as bad debt wipes out financial institutions, corporations, and willfully ignorant consumer borrowers. The lesson of 2008 has already been forgotten. Rather than rolling out his grand vision, Trump will be dealing with a financial crisis which will make 2008 look like a walk in Central Park. Will he follow the same failed policies used after 2008 - NIRP, QE, and saving Wall Street at the expense of Main Street?
Or will he level with the American people, allow Wall Street banks to go bankrupt, let the free market purge the system of trillions in bad debt, tackle the unfunded entitlement liabilities, and have Americans endure a Depression in order to reset our economic system? It will take a Grey Champion with a high level of moral fortitude and courage to demand such sacrifice from the citizens of this country.
With the left already trying to provoke a race war, once the Depression takes grip and the social safety net of entitlements begins to fray, the civic decay in the urban ghettos will reach a tipping point. Cities will burn, looters will run roughshod as police refuse to enter lawless neighborhoods, and commerce will grind to a halt.
If social justice warriors, black lives matter terrorists, or any other group of useful idiots decide to take their protests and violence into the red zones, outright civil war could break out. The Grey Champion is likely to clamp down on this civil disorder with the use of troops. Civil liberties will be trampled as the Federal Government attempts to maintain control. Fourth Amendment fans will not be pleased.
With rigged markets at record highs and the establishment still holding this Ponzi scheme of a country together, so they can extract a few trillion more before the collapse, the illusion of normalcy has lulled tens of millions into a false sense of security. Global disorder expands exponentially by the day.
The Middle East is a powder-keg; Russia and the U.S. are one mistaken shoot down from war; Europe is being overrun by Muslim hordes even as their insolvent socialist paradise goes bankrupt; NATO provokes Russia on a daily basis; Japan's decades long depression worsens; China's debt bubble approaches the breaking point; and currency wars are waged across the globe. Delusional Americans willfully ignore the facts because acknowledging them would require painful choices and accepting the consequences of decades of bad decisions.
As Trump focuses on filling his cabinet posts and preparing for his inauguration eight weeks from now, the forces of evil are gathering strength and preparing for battle. We are in the midst of the lull before the storm. Nothing has changed since the election from a debt crisis perspective. It seems the mainstream media pundits are purposely asleep at the wheel as The Obama administration has dialed the government spending up to 11.
Obama has made it his mission to reach $20 trillion in debt before he departs. At the current rate of debt accumulation, he will reach his goal by mid-December. The Obama administration has increased the national debt by $324 billion in the first 48 days of the fiscal year. That's a rate of $6.75 billion per day. The rate of accumulation last year was $3.3 billion per day. This is out of control, and not a peep from the propaganda media, or incoming administration.
The ongoing Soros funded protests in liberal urban enclaves across the country are setting the stage for a major confrontation in Washington D.C. on January 20, 2017. Obama continues to fan the flames of faux outrage from the left. Soros and his domestic terrorist co-conspirators are planning violent demonstrations in the midst of the inaugural celebration. Obama will order the police to stand down and allow the situation to get out of control.
Picture the 1968 Chicago Democratic convention. There is one major difference. There will be hundreds of thousands of Trump supporters who will not stand idly by and be abused by millennial snowflakes, BLM thugs, and feminazis. This event is likely to trigger clashes across the country. The gloves will be off and the situation could spiral out of control.
Those hoping for the Trump presidency to somehow derail this Fourth Turning are delusional. Fourth Turnings never de-intensify. They build to a bloody crescendo, with the existing social order left in tatters and clear winners and losers. I think it is useful to describe this Fourth Turning in terms everyone should understand. J.R.R. Tolkien wrote his Lord of the Rings trilogy in the midst of the last Fourth Turning. It's not a coincidence the heroic figure of Gandalf the Grey saves the day during the Battle of Helm's Deep. He was the Grey Champion.
In today's parlance, Helm's Deep is occupied by normal working class Americans (aka the deplorables). George Soros is the evil Sauron, creating an army of Orcs with his immense wealth to destroy the good people of Helm's Deep and abolish their way of life. Through relentless propaganda, violent protests, and the creation of useful idiots through our government indoctrination camps (aka public schools & universities), Soros is attempting to conquer our society and turn it into a global socialist playground for himself and his oligarch cronies. They had us surrounded and were breaching the walls. Two weeks ago the battle seemed lost. Soros had his Orc General Clinton positioned for certain victory.
When the situation looked darkest, the Grey Champion materialized on the horizon with reinforcements indispensable in turning the tide. The feeling in flyover country when Trump ascended the podium to assume the mantle of the presidency was on par with the feelings of the Helm's Deep citizen combatants when they realized Gandalf the Grey had arrived to save the day. As we know, the victory at Helm's Deep did not win the war. Sauron regrouped and resumed his attack on humanity in short order. Soros is regrouping as we speak and girding his forces of evil for a final showdown. This war is still being waged. And the victor will not be crowned until the mid - 2020s.
The deplorables were in search of a prophet generation (Boomer) Grey Champion to lead them through this era of darkness, adversity and peril as this Fourth Turning careens towards its climax. The Grey Champion doesn't have to be a good person, but they must lead and display tremendous confidence in their cause and path. Humbleness, thoughtfulness, graciousness and building consensus are not the traits of a Grey Champion.
Lincoln and FDR have many detractors, but during their Fourth Turnings, they most certainly led, casting aside impediments (often illegally), initiating conflict and enduring many dark days, with bleak prospects for a successful resolution. But they forged on despite the setbacks, failures, and tragedies. Both died on the doorstep of victory. Those of a libertarian bent, thinking Trump will restore Constitutional rights, will be disappointed, as he is likely to strengthen and expand government control of our economy, healthcare system, speech and communications.
As this Fourth Turning traverses obstacles towards its ultimate climax, the intensity will escalate to an earth shattering dimension. Bold decisions will need to be made, requiring a leader who displays incredible confidence, unflinching determination and inspirational leadership. Political correctness and cultural warfare gibberish will have no place in the coming trials. Trivialities will be disregarded; techno-narcissists will be forced to abandon their iGadgets and pick up a weapon; financial oligarchs will see their fortunes evaporate in the blink of an eye; revenge and retribution will be meted out in equal portions; and the possibility for worldwide annihilation will be ever present.
Winter has arrived, bitter winds are blowing and Spring is many years away. Grim times have befallen the planet. The prospect for a tragic outcome grows by the day. The storm clouds loom on the horizon. There will be no avoiding the coming tempest. Trump cannot defuse the banquet of consequences, decades in the making, headed in our direction. The best he can do is maneuver the country through this minefield of history without blowing the world up. There will certainly be financial chaos, widespread death, colossal destruction, and an all-out war to the finish. Let's pray the Grey Champion can lead us through this valley of death to a new High. There are no guarantees and our choices will matter.
"The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort - in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind's willingness to use it." - Strauss & Howe - The Fourth Turning