• 43 mins Putin Signs “Digital Iron Curtain” Into Law
  • 4 hours Russian Metals Magnate Sues U.S. Over Sanctions
  • 7 hours Tesla Looks To Jump Into Indian Market
  • 9 hours Global Banks Lay Groundwork To Re-Inflate Asset Prices
  • 1 day Homeowners Experiment With Risky New Investment Trend
  • 1 day U.S. Tech Stocks Look Increasingly Vulnerable
  • 1 day De Beers To Expand World’s Most Profitable Diamond Mine
  • 1 day Ford CEO Gets Raise After Massive Layoff Round
  • 2 days Germany’s Flirtation With Recession Could Cripple The Global Economy
  • 2 days Where To Look As Gold Miners Inch Higher
  • 3 days Google Faces Billions In Fines From European Regulators
  • 3 days The Energy Industry Has A Millennial Problem
  • 4 days Russian Banks Scramble For Sanction Loopholes
  • 4 days Gold ETFs Take A Hit After Four-Month Run
  • 5 days European Union Takes Aim At Ten New Tax Havens
  • 5 days Goldman Defends Trillion-Dollar Corporate Buyback Spree
  • 5 days $600 Billion At Risk As Boeing Fallout Continues
  • 5 days Venezuela Has Yet Another Crisis Developing
  • 6 days Wells Fargo Accused Of “Ongoing Lawlessness”
  • 6 days Hollywood Agency Returns $400M Investment To Saudi Wealth Fund
The Chatroom Cartel Running Global Bond Markets

The Chatroom Cartel Running Global Bond Markets

Eight major banks have been…

Lending: The Good, Bad, And Ugly

Lending: The Good, Bad, And Ugly

Aristotle said, “The most hated…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Did The 'Trump Tantrum' Just Trigger The Next Us Recession?

Trump May Have "Pricked" The Global Bond Bubble

Trump called during the campaign for a $1 trillion infrastructure package, $5 trillion in tax cuts, increases in military spending and the repeal ObamaCare, which could cost more than $350 billion over 10 years. At the same time, the president-elect has promised “not to touch” Social Security or make cuts to Medicare. The moment Trump was elected the markets immediately reacted to this potential massive fiscal injection. Bond values plummeted as yields spiked.

Over $1T in global leveraged capital evaporated almost instantaneously.


Trump's Threat Of Protectionism & Potential Retaliatory Tariffs

Less precise than the inflation expectations being "baked in"was the pricing in of a potentially slower global economy due to Trump's threat to renegotiate existing US trade agreements. His campaign rhetoric signals the likelihood of protectionism, tariffs and trade wars. None of this is particularly encouraging for growth projections especially with already slowing global trade volumes and for further increasing protectionist measures on-top of those already implemented.


Brink of Recession

Trump's "pro-growth" policies may play well to the electorate and to future economic expectations, but in the short term the realities are such that they he may very well have pushed the US over the brink of a potential pending US Recession!

US INVESTMENT GROWTH APPEARS NOW AT THE TIPPING POINT

THIS LEVEL OF CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT RATE HAS ALWAYS BEEN A PRECURSOR TO A RECESSION

LEVERAGE CORRELATION TELLS THE STORY


We are Due for a Cyclical US Recession

What could be different with this recession?

  • First, it is going to be truly global – essentially all Emerging Markets would experience a recession (for them it would be far worse than 1998 though).
  • Second, the Developed World Central banks are out of traditional ammunition (zero to negative rates everywhere).
  • Third, the debt levels and excess leverage in use today are unprecedented within the public sector, corporate private sector and overall households,

The list goes on!

Expect it to get ugly in 2017 after the election honeymoon wears off (and that honeymoon already seems pretty rocky)!

 


Signup for notification of the next MATASII Macro Insights

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment