• 11 hours Gold Is Still A Safe Haven, But Not Very Alluring
  • 19 hours What Does CHina’s EV Slowdown Mean For The Battery Metals Sector?
  • 1 day COVID Report Cards Will Brand Businesses Forever
  • 2 days Trump Tweet Sends Oil Soaring 25%
  • 2 days Why The Coronavirus Economic Crash Is Worse Than You Think
  • 3 days Is A Global Currency Necessary?
  • 3 days America Has Shed 500,000 Millionaires Since The Coronavirus Lockdown Began
  • 4 days Trump Wants Another $2 Trillion Economic Intervention
  • 4 days The Surprising Businesses Deemed “Essential” During The Coronavirus Lockdown
  • 5 days Priceless Van Gogh "Spring Garden" Painting Stolen
  • 5 days Oil Falls To $20 For First Time In Nearly Two Decades
  • 5 days COVID-19 Could Be The End Of U.S. Coal
  • 5 days How Much Does Your Social Security Number Cost? $4 On The Dark Web
  • 7 days Silver Stocks Have Been Decimated In The Coronavirus Sell-Off
  • 8 days How Blockchain Tech Could Make Mergers And Acquisitions More Efficient
  • 8 days America’s Shortage Of This Metal Keeps Trump Up At Night
  • 8 days Bidet Bonanza: Defying The Toilet Paper Shortage
  • 9 days U.S. Auto Sales Fall By 75%
  • 9 days Violating Quarantine? Big Brother Is Watching
  • 10 days Does Gold Still Have Some Room To Run?
How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Did The 'Trump Tantrum' Just Trigger The Next Us Recession?

Trump May Have "Pricked" The Global Bond Bubble

Trump called during the campaign for a $1 trillion infrastructure package, $5 trillion in tax cuts, increases in military spending and the repeal ObamaCare, which could cost more than $350 billion over 10 years. At the same time, the president-elect has promised “not to touch” Social Security or make cuts to Medicare. The moment Trump was elected the markets immediately reacted to this potential massive fiscal injection. Bond values plummeted as yields spiked.

Over $1T in global leveraged capital evaporated almost instantaneously.


Trump's Threat Of Protectionism & Potential Retaliatory Tariffs

Less precise than the inflation expectations being "baked in"was the pricing in of a potentially slower global economy due to Trump's threat to renegotiate existing US trade agreements. His campaign rhetoric signals the likelihood of protectionism, tariffs and trade wars. None of this is particularly encouraging for growth projections especially with already slowing global trade volumes and for further increasing protectionist measures on-top of those already implemented.


Brink of Recession

Trump's "pro-growth" policies may play well to the electorate and to future economic expectations, but in the short term the realities are such that they he may very well have pushed the US over the brink of a potential pending US Recession!

US INVESTMENT GROWTH APPEARS NOW AT THE TIPPING POINT

THIS LEVEL OF CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT RATE HAS ALWAYS BEEN A PRECURSOR TO A RECESSION

LEVERAGE CORRELATION TELLS THE STORY


We are Due for a Cyclical US Recession

What could be different with this recession?

  • First, it is going to be truly global – essentially all Emerging Markets would experience a recession (for them it would be far worse than 1998 though).
  • Second, the Developed World Central banks are out of traditional ammunition (zero to negative rates everywhere).
  • Third, the debt levels and excess leverage in use today are unprecedented within the public sector, corporate private sector and overall households,

The list goes on!

Expect it to get ugly in 2017 after the election honeymoon wears off (and that honeymoon already seems pretty rocky)!

 


Signup for notification of the next MATASII Macro Insights

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment