30 min chart:
My Bias: short in wave 3 blue.
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave 1, 2 blue
Short term wave count: lower in wave 3 green
Long term wave count: lower in wave 3 blue
Important risk events: EUR: N/A. USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Claims, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Crude Oil Inventories.
EURUSD followed yesterdays analysis to a T!
Now it gets very interesting in terms of the current wave count.
Of the November high at 1.1295,
- We have a complete wave 1,2 down in blue,
- a complete wave (i), (ii) down in green
- and a possibly completed wave 'i,ii' down in brown.
If this wave interpretation correct here the potential for an acceleration to the downside is very large here.
I expected a rally in wave ii brown yesterday, and today we got it.
That rally reached the 50% retracement of wave 'i' brown, at todays high.
So far, that key level I mentioned seems to have stalled progression.
The invalidation point for this short term elliott wave count is at 1.0650.
So I want to see a turn lower before that point.
Now, it is time to get eyes on, to see if we get a turn down and the formation of a lower high, below todays high, which will offer a low risk short opportunity.
That could occur tomorrow, but, be aware that tomorrow is a big data day for the dollar, the reaction to this data could cause a whipsaw in the price action.