With 2017 approaching fast, we are perplexed by the faith that investors have placed in the current narrative, namely Trump + US Presidency = global wealth. This equation fails on so many levels, it is hard to know where to start. Our outlook for 2017 is contrarian in that we have limited belief in the ability of Trump as president to perform the fiscal and tax reform miracle - even with a Republican dominated house and senate - and thereby unleash growth, as vaunted in his tweets. Without the Trump-reflation trade, US economic acceleration becomes more controlled and the Fed normalization path becomes less steep. From a relative value standpoint, this allows other nations to catch up. This year will not be about total domination in USD and US assets, but general global reflation and rogue bouts of politically driven uncertainty.

Outlook 2017