My Bias: neutral- long
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Short term wave count:wave [iii] grey
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: N/A. USD: Unemployment Claims, FOMC Member Evans Speaks, FOMC Member Harker Speaks, Import Prices m/m, Fed Chair Yellen Speaks.
Last night I was looking for USDJPY to decline further in wave (c) green,
After a brief rise to touch the upper trendline of that trend chanel, the price dropped 240 points in a couple of hours.
There is no other for of analysis that I know of, other than elliott wave analysis, that allows you to see past the cold right edge of the chart like that.
And that is why I use this form of analysis!
Back to the market.
There is a possibility that wave (c) green is complete at todays low of 114.24.
I have shown that option on the chart, but wave ‘iv’ brown could also form a triangle from here, which would allow for another low in the coming days.
The lower target in wave [iv] grey was about 113.90 so that option is not off the table just yet.
If we get a rally above the resistance at wave (b) green, then we can start turning bullish again in wave [v] grey.
Also keep in mind the Alternate wave count on the Daily chart, This view is slightly remote in terms of probability as of today, but there is a certain appeal to that larger picture.
If the market starts dropping through previous support levels, then this wave count will be favored.
Firstly I am looking to see if todays low holds.