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Dow Jones Contracting Triangle Scenario

Topping in wave (5)

30 min

Dow Jines Industrial Average 30-Minute Chart
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4 Hours

Dow Jines Industrial Average 4-Hour Chart
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Daily

Dow Jines Industrial Average Daily Chart
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My Bias: Long towards 20,500
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Short term wave count: Upside from 17,066 wave 4 blue
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: WEF Annual Meetings, Building Permits, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims, Housing Starts, Crude Oil Inventories, Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

The Triangle scenario which I spoke about last night seems to be bearing out so far as this sideways churn keeps going.
I have updated the Elliott wave count to make this the primary wave count.

It looks likey that wave (a), (b) and (c) are complete at the lows of the day.
So I am watchin for the market to create one more higher low in wave (e) to complete wave [iv] green.
At this point the odds of a significant rally will be very high.
We could see another 1000 points on the DOW without much hassle.

The larger wave count is still intact, and in fact I favour a final rally within the overall bearish larger picture I am painting here.
One last high above 20500 will complete a nice five wave form off the November lows.

There is a higher target at around 21190, shown on the 4hr chart, where a Fibonacci extension of wave [i] green is projected off the wave [ii] low.
This extreme high is not unlikely from here and will still fit within the larger bearish wave form.

Firstly the contracting triangle must complete over the next few days.

 

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