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Ed Carlson

Ed Carlson

Ed Carlson, author of George Lindsay and the Art of Technical Analysis, and his new book, George Lindsay's An Aid to Timing is an independent…

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Three Peaks and a Domed House Revisited

The 3PDh pattern of 2014-2016 appears to have failed. After a textbook, five-wave pullback (first floor roof/points 15-20) in April-June 2016, the Dow shot up in a vertical fashion fulfilling Lindsay's description of the 2nd floor wall (points 20-21). That was followed by a small cupola or head-and-shoulders top with the supposed bull market top arriving on 8/15/16. The following sell-off should have reached the bottom of the Separating Decline (February lows) at a minimum. As we all know, rather than experiencing a bear market, the Dow found a low on Election Day and the rally to new bull market highs has been named the "Trump Bump". But appearances can be deceiving...

The minor sell-off following the August high also played out as a five wave reversal and the subsequent rally since the election is the definition of a 2nd floor wall. Since mid-December, the Dow has moved sideways which is necessary to the formation of a cupola.

The standard time spans tell us not to expect a significant high until the period April-August 2017 but it never hurts to keep one eye focused on what isn't expected...

Dow Industrials Three Peaks and a Domed House Chart
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Idealized Three Peaks and a Domed House Chart

 


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