• 55 mins Netflix Struggles To Rebound After Subscriber Hit
  • 23 hours $15,000 For Your Crypto’s Ticket To Visibility
  • 2 days The Next Fashion Frontier
  • 3 days What Is Africa’s Role In The New Silk Road?
  • 4 days Trump Was Right About The Dollar
  • 4 days Is Silver Gearing Up For A Rally?
  • 4 days World’s Largest Hedge Fund Turns Bullish On Gold
  • 4 days It’s Time To Spend More On Clean Energy R&D
  • 5 days Contrarian Investors Are Beating The Stock Market
  • 5 days Bulgaria’s Revenue Agency Falls Victim To Biggest Cyber Heist In History
  • 5 days Amazon Faces European Union Anti-Trust Probe
  • 5 days Commodities Are Having A Stellar Year
  • 6 days Bezos’ Next Big Project Could Be Worth $100 Billion Per Year
  • 6 days 3,600 Years Later, Climate Change Turns Mammoths Into $40M Market
  • 6 days Tesla, Apple Claim China Is Stealing Intellectual Property
  • 6 days EV Giants Duke It Out For Battery Dominance
  • 7 days Tech Billionaire Takes Aim At Google
  • 7 days Chinese Police Bust Largest Ever Illicit Crypto Mining Operation
  • 7 days Expect A Pullback Before Gold's Next Major Rally
  • 7 days Why Interest On Gold Matters
The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

Modern monetary theory has been…

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Stocks sold off last week…

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Welcome to Art Basel: The…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Inflation Expectations Rise, Spending Projections Decline

Every month the Federal Reserve Bank of New York does a survey of consumer expectations: Inflation, spending, earning, and jobs.

The January 2017 report came out today.

Amusingly, the Fed indirectly relies on consumer confidence numbers to gage spending projections but does not rely on its own survey of consumer-stated projections.


Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations


Consumer Spending Projections

Consumer Spending Projections

The first chart is from the FRBNY. I created the second chart from a data download, as the Fed does not produce the chart directly.

It's interesting, but likely meaningless, that inflation expectations are on the rise. I suspect this is due to media yapping about inflation under Trump.

CPI inflation expectations are all but useless. However, asset price expectations do influence speculation.

The other interesting thing is how the Fed clings to consumer confidence numbers as a measure of consumer spending projections instead of its own survey of household spending projections.

Finally, note how spending projections at the median and low-end drop, but at the high end have risen. Is this another Trump-effect due to a rising stock market?

Regardless, there is no sign of recovery in spending at the median- and bottom-end. People are broke.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment