The triumph of Donald Trump as the champion of a revolution against the status quo assures huge economic changes in the coming year, which I'll list below. His victory struck aÂ shocking upset toÂ the globalists whoÂ have steered the last sixty or more years of world history, as I reported in anÂ earlier story about George Soros mourning over the damage Trump will bring to global governance by unelected elitists.
For a short time, we should see some improvements. However,Â numerous structural flaws in the US economy ultimately assure economic collapse because those flawsÂ have not been dealt with for decades, are not being dealt with in any of the Donald's plans, and are most likely too far gone now to ever deal with. Trump's plan will evenÂ make some of those structural flawsÂ much worse in the long run.
What I describeÂ in theseÂ economic predictions hasÂ considerable contagion possibilities for the rest of the world. WhileÂ emerging economies have grown to where the US does not have the near-totalÂ economic dominance it once had over the world, it is still the world's greatest economy (at least, in size). So, it is stillÂ true that, when the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold ... if not pneumonia.
What Trump's victory changes most is the timing of economic collapseÂ because hisÂ economic plan is bound toÂ bring temporary lift, even asÂ it worsens some of the structural flaws. The effect of the flaws I Â wrote about will take more time to develop than the improvements, but probably not much more time.
Let's start with the positives:
Positive economic changes that are certain to result from the Trump triumph
Here is a list of economic changes, which I think are certain to bring some boost to the US economy in 2017 and willÂ likely delayÂ my epocalyptic predictions:
It is certain that Trump's tax plan will happen.Â While it may notÂ happen entirely, something very close to it will certainly happen because Republicans have never seen a tax-reduction plan they didn't like. Republicans hold certainÂ economic convictions as tightly as religious dogma: they believe tax cuts will pay for themselves and so will not create huge worsening ofÂ the national debt. Every timeÂ they make tax cuts, they claim the cuts will stimulate investment, which will stimulateÂ the economy, which meansÂ more businesses will produce more revenue, which means there will actually beÂ more tax revenue, not less. They have never been right about this yet. We have NEVER madeÂ tax cuts without increasing the federalÂ deficit under any president. That fact, however, never kills this dogmatic belief. Republicans alsoÂ believe with religious fervor that targeting tax cuts to the rich in the form of corporate breaks and particularly capital gains cuts will create new jobs and trickle wealth down to the middle class and the poor. The fact that real middle class wealth has stagnated or even shrunk during every past episode of trickle-down economics never matters. Belief trumps truth. Since Republicans control the entire legislature and the executive branch and will be changing the balance of the Supreme Court, it is absolutely certain we will see major tax reductionsÂ that will come as our third and greatest round of trickle-down economics. The plan coauthored by Larry Kudlow has all of his support with conservatives and Republicans, too. Even if Trump were removed from office, most of his plan would become law.
The stock market will rise ... for awhile, at least. What we know from trickle-down economics is that it certainly does stimulate the stock market. The moneyÂ that is saved on capital gains and corporate income and that is repatriated in corporate income from overseas largely goes into speculative gambling in stocks. Very little of it goes into capital construction or business expansion. Even before any of Trump's proposedÂ changes have happened, we are witnessing how the mere hope of such changes has caused a huge increase in stock-market speculation (both volume and prices) as investors try to reposition for this new reality. There was a brief stock marketÂ slump right when I said there would be onceÂ people started to question whether Trump's plans would be enacted, but it didn't last long because, as soon as Trump got into office, heÂ moved rapidly via serial executive orders to start implementing many of his promises, quickly building faith that he will carry out most of them rapidly and with great determination.
It is unlikely that Trump's infrastructure stimulus plan will make it off the groundÂ in 2017. While Republicans are certain to approve tax breaks, they are not big on massive government spending increases. TrumpÂ will find some strong resistance among Republicans to his increased spending; at the same time, Democrats remember well how Republicans battled against Obama's plans to increase infrastructure spending in order to stimulate the economy. According to junior Republicans who eventually cameÂ out against Speaker of the House John Boehner, this was partlyÂ because Boehner and the Republican guardÂ didn't want Obama to get the credit for economic improvement. They put the good of their party over their nation's good. So, Trump will likely find a lot of resistance there, too, as Democrats return this tactic.
Spending will certainly increase in one area -- the military. Republicans have proven for decades that no deficit is too big if it is going toward building a stronger military. They find support among Democrats for this, who have just as many wealthy donorsÂ in the military-industrial complex as Republicans have. They also find a lot of support amongÂ the general public -- particularly conservatives -- because conservativesÂ like for America to be the strongest nationÂ on earth. Besides beingÂ macho, defense and security have a strong argument behind them in a world full of terrorists. While Trump seeks to improve relations with Russia, he is also antagonizing relations with China. The US, under Obama, was already acting more aggressive in the South China Sea in order to keep China from controlling secondary trade routes. Trump will build on Obama's lead there, and his trade battles with China may intensify conflict with China overall. Trump has stated loud and clear that the US military will be ready to look out for Japan's national interests. At the same time, North Korea is picking a fight in order to beat its chest, which pressesÂ TrumpÂ to take some action against them. That may come aboutÂ just as sanctions, but could involveÂ some military saber rattling or countermeasures from the US that could escalate. TrumpÂ will take a greater lead than Obama did against terrorists in the Middle East, as he was critical of Obama's restrainedÂ and somewhat ineffective efforts. Expect a more aggressive anti-terrorist policy.Â That means,Â as under Reagan, increased military spending will be more important than increased infrastructure spending, but military spending also stimulates the economy by creating jobsÂ and boostingÂ a number of majorÂ stocks.
Economically, those are all strong short-term positives, regardless of what they bringÂ further down the road.
Economic collapse willÂ happen on Trump's watch, probably later this year
In spite of these certain positive economic changes forÂ 2017, there remains a countervailing globalist force that has already presided over numerous economic failures of its own making. These people will relentlessly attack Trump, and theyÂ will seek to pin their own failingÂ recoveryÂ on him. Such an entrenched counterforceÂ makes it impossible to say how much temporary good Trump'sÂ economic policies canÂ bring. Trump starts in a world where globalists have long ruled the nation's central bank, which they have positioned to createÂ US economic hegemony. Trump can change that over time, but probably doesn't have time enough. Also, his lineup of Goldman Sachs executives in all financial offices of the US says that he won't. GobalistsÂ are also deeply entrenchedÂ inÂ US intelligence agenciesÂ and the military leadership, where theyÂ have engaged in relentless nation building as theyÂ seekÂ to shape the worldÂ toward the interests of theirÂ own political and financial establishment while also working in alliance withÂ the interests of the UK and the rest of Europe.
They will do anything they can to restrain Trump's plans to drain the swamp in Washington and as well as his plans to align with Russia and his plans to diminish nation-building efforts. How far and how quickly he can push against their resistanceÂ depends entirely on his and his followers' ability to overcome deeply entrenched globalist powers that have steeredÂ the nations of "the West" for decades. All globalists in the world will oppose Trump.
Globalist are firstÂ trying to groom and massage TrumpÂ into their ways. They are also tryingÂ to thwart him through fake news in the media, slanted stories, political attacks, and by stirring upÂ chaos and counter-revolution wherever possible. Even Obama has formed a foundation to try to muster as manyÂ protests against Trump as possible. To the extent those effortsÂ fail to stop or change Trump, the financial establishmentÂ will, in the very least, try to make him the scapegoat for the failure of their past eight years of badly misguided recovery efforts.
If they cannot impeach him, as some are already working toward, the ultimate risk for Trump and his supporters is that the establishmentÂ will assassinate him.Â This risk is real enough that, for the first time in the history of the US (that I am aware of), we witnessedÂ the nation's largest mainstream news source (CNN) decide that one of the most important non-news stories it could trump up during the inauguration was a "what-if" storyÂ about how US leadership roles would be assignedÂ if Â Trump was assassinated on the day Obama's leadership expired but justÂ before Trump got inaugurated.
That such a concern made it as aÂ main CNN story shows there are many mainstream thinkers who see assassination as a realistic possibility, not as Â some hysterical conspiracy theory. CNNÂ Â saw it asÂ enough of a likelihood already in the public mind to make it useful fake news (fake in the sense that it filled news time but is not news at all, but (for the moment) pure fiction that teases liberal minds with a kind of "final solution"Â hope). Trump is Hitler, according to liberalÂ mass hysteria (just as much as Hillary Clinton was Hitlery to conservatives). Both sides routinely demonize their opposition. As the flagship of the liberal media, CNN planted deep the impliedÂ seed of hope that Trump might be taken care of with a final solution aimed just at him. Of course, they would deny that they were raising incendiary hopes among liberal Trump haters.
Now that the revolution and counter-revolution have begun, there is no way I can say which force will dominate by the end ofÂ 2017, given the immensity of the forces, the entrenchment of the old guard, the resolution of the Trump revolutionaries, the huge flaws existing in the US and global economies, and the economic headwinds that I'll lay out in my next article. What I can point out is thatÂ the globalists clearly begin with the upper hand by far, and they are certainly not going to give up. In fact, they are only beginning toÂ implementÂ their strategies to overcome Trump because they did not believe they would lose the election.
One of the things I said throughout the past yearÂ was that my many predictions aboutÂ the Epocalypse (the epic and epochal, economic collapse into apocalyptic times) for 2016 might be pushed back until after the election because the Federal Reserve and the Obama administration would do anything and everything possible to avoid having their "recovery" fail on their watch, lest their failure shouldÂ assure a Trump victory andÂ destroy their own legacy. If that meant using Fed funds to buy up oil through banks to manipulate oil prices upward or meant the Fed would influence orÂ coerce proxies in other countries to buy up US assets to support the stock market -- whatever it might take -- they would do it all ... behind the scenes.
Shortly after saying that, I pointed out in early 2016 how the Federal Reserve board held two back-to-back "emergency, closed-door meetings" (as described onÂ the Fed'sÂ own published calendar) followed by an immediate "emergency meeting" between Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, and the president and vice president of the United States. After thoseÂ meetings, the stock crashÂ that had begun in January and somewhat recovered in February evaporated, and stocks moved continuously toward recovering all lost ground. We were never told what any of those meetings were about, but meetings between the Fed chair and the president rarely happen, and meetings including the V.P. almost never happen. That indicates some level of emergency that the vice president also needed to be fully informed on.
It has also been my stated belief all along that, if Trump did win (which I gave a better likelihood than Hillary), the Federal Reserve would capitalize on it. I have no doubt that globalists have plans for every contingency. With their recovery failing again (as we saw GDP cascade in the final quarter of 2016), the establishment wouldÂ be more than happy to let it crash after the election, but most likely not until after Obama was out of office and Trump sat in the oval office.
I have said for years that theÂ Fed's "recovery" during the Obama administration canÂ only liveÂ asÂ long as artificial life support continues. That supportÂ still continues intenselyÂ through the Fed holding indefinitely theÂ huge expansion of its balance sheet (which leverages outÂ to an historically enormous pool of new money continuing to floatÂ the economy) and through the Fed's continuance of extremely low interest rates. (While rising now, interest ratesÂ still remain the lowest they have beenÂ in modern history, outside of the Great Recession.)
I've believed that, if globalists faced a Trump victory, theyÂ would evenÂ collapse the economy on purpose, if it were not already failing, because they would love to decapitate their newly risen opposition by making people believe that the entire global economy collapsed because of Trump's interruption to their plans. They would hope that would slam a lid on revolutionaries against globalism, teaching them once and for all that their individualism and nationalistic, anti-socialist ways bring only rapid calamity.
I think they recognize that, ifÂ a global collapse happens on Trump's watch, many people will look desperately for a global solution from those who appeared to be having success with restoring the economy before he came into office. ManyÂ people do not see that the Fed'sÂ recovery was only kept alive by endless and massive administrations of artificial life support. ManyÂ people also do not see or believe that the economic flaws of the US and many other nations are fatal or even important -- such as the size of national debts, the vanityÂ of fiat currencies, the dangers of financing nationalÂ debts with massive infusions of such currency. They don't believe that expanding personal debt to individual limits leads to enslavement as does national debt -- enslavement to bankers. They even believe that banks and government have done the right things to reduce the risks of another economic crisis like we had from 2007 to 2009 in the Great Recession.
Therefore, it will not be hard to find a majority of the populace that will join the mainstream media and the establishment politicians in blaming Trump when the entire global economy goes down. Trump'sÂ provocativeÂ mouth, his brazenÂ plans, his sometimesÂ brash execution of those plans, along with his narcissism and often clownish behavior, make him a ripe target as a grand scapegoat. (I think even most conservatives would have to admit to themselves here that, if Trump were carrying out a totally liberal agenda, theyÂ would find plentiful stock for ridiculeÂ in Trump'sÂ showy,Â boastful, and brashÂ behavior. It won't be hard for his opponents to do the same.)
So, if the establishment doesn'tÂ assassinate him (now a mainstream idea), they will likely make him a scapegoat to carry away their own sins. All of that places the likelihood of economic collapse sometime in 2017.