"No warning can save people determined to grow suddently rich" - Lord Overstone

  • 58 mins Zuckerberg Dodges A Bullet As Facebook Loses Billions
  • 2 hours Tesla Tumbles As Investors Lose Patience
  • 3 hours Are Alt-Coins On The Verge Of A Break Out?
  • 5 hours What Should Gold Investors Expect From The New Fed Chair?
  • 6 hours Who Will Pay For Trump's $60 Billion China Tariffs?
  • 22 hours Vladimir Putin’s Mysterious Fortune
  • 23 hours Cryptos Resist Social Media Crackdown
  • 24 hours The Death Of Dodd-Frank
  • 1 day Bitcoin Bounces Back Ahead Of G20 Meeting
  • 1 day Trump's Trade War Nears Boiling Point
  • 1 day Will April Be A Turning Point For Precious Metals?
  • 1 day Economic Pressures Weigh On Banks And Borrowers
  • 1 day U.S. Political Uncertainty Keeps Stock Markets On Edge
  • 2 days Gold: The Religion Of Currency
  • 3 days Economists Polarized On Trump’s Tariff Plan
  • 4 days Why Are Investors Overlooking Gold Stocks?
  • 4 days The App That Democratized Trading Is Now Worth $5B
  • 4 days Super-Cycles: Why Gold Is Set For A Breakout
  • 4 days U.S. Sanctions Russia For Election Meddling And Cyberattacks
  • 4 days Snap Shares Tank Over ‘Slap Rihanna’ Campaign
Alibaba Soars On Reports Of China Listing

Alibaba Soars On Reports Of China Listing

Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba saw…

Trump's Trade War Nears Boiling Point

Trump's Trade War Nears Boiling Point

Trump’s trade war appears to…

Tesla Tumbles As Investors Lose Patience

Tesla Tumbles As Investors Lose Patience

As Tesla’s Model 3 looks…

We Interrupt our Regular Update with this Special Report

COT data has been instrumental in guiding us and helping us navigate market conditions during a bull and bear market. The latest COT data is quite alarming, and has our full attention going forward.

Gold Continuous Contract Daily Chart

Long time readers are familiar with this chart, and it is self explanatory.

But for newcomers, here is a detailed breakdown:

- a bull market attracts speculators and the net long positions at both tops and bottoms are significantly higher of those in a bear market. Common sense.

- the price spike in 2016 attracted a record crowd with 280k net long positions at the 2016 summer top, giving us hope that a new bull market was in progress.

- however, the sharp sell off into Dec reduced the net long positions to 96k, which was much lower than average bull market value at bottoms.

- since Dec, prices have recovered about half, while net long positions only reached 164k, which is a bear market value.

Silver Continuous Contract Daily Chart

The speculation in silver is even more alarming.

Net long positions reached 95k this week, barely lower than the recovery peak of last summer, and yet the price of silver is 10% below that peak.

Gold Bugs Index Weekly Chart

To get a glimpse of the future, we must determine what the current trend is, and in which direction it is trending.

  • gold stocks as represented by $HUI is currently bound by support and resistance, and should see a break soon either way.


We have been monitoring COT data for the past seventeen years, and by observing speculative activities, it has helped us to identify the speculative values of a bull and bear market. The latest data has alerted us to the potential return to a bear market. Caution is advised.


Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment

Sign Up For The Safehaven Newsletter