• 6 hours The Pandemic Proof $53 Billion Industry Wall Street Can’t Ignore
  • 9 hours Will Gold Hit $2,000?
  • 13 hours Trump’s Proposed Regulation Could Slow The ESG Boom
  • 1 day India To Auction 41 Coal Assets
  • 2 days Eldorado Sees Gold Production Soar In Second Quarte
  • 2 days Do Gold Stocks Still Have Upside Potential?
  • 3 days The S&P 500’s Top Companies Hold $2.5 Trillion In Debt
  • 4 days Electric Vehicle Rebound Bolsters Battery Metal Growth
  • 4 days BlackRock Makes A Run On Asian Stocks
  • 5 days Gold Prices Surge Above $1,800
  • 5 days Chinese Stocks Soar On Bullish Economic Data
  • 6 days Apple’s “Holy Grail Of Data” Leaves Energy Traders Disappointed
  • 6 days Gold Rally Adds $250 Billion To Top 50 Miners' Market Cap
  • 6 days TikTok Is Becoming A New Battleground For Tech Politics
  • 6 days Peru's Mining Industry Pummeled As Coronavirus Cases Surge
  • 7 days Why The World Is So Divided In Its COVID-19 Response
  • 7 days Equities Cheer Stellar Jobs Report, But It May Be Fleeting
  • 8 days Is Tech Billionaire Peter Thiel Done With Trump?
  • 9 days Musk Takes To Twitter To Troll The SEC
  • 10 days Lunar Mining May Commence As Early As 2025
Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

We Interrupt our Regular Update with this Special Report

COT data has been instrumental in guiding us and helping us navigate market conditions during a bull and bear market. The latest COT data is quite alarming, and has our full attention going forward.

Gold Continuous Contract Daily Chart

Long time readers are familiar with this chart, and it is self explanatory.

But for newcomers, here is a detailed breakdown:

- a bull market attracts speculators and the net long positions at both tops and bottoms are significantly higher of those in a bear market. Common sense.

- the price spike in 2016 attracted a record crowd with 280k net long positions at the 2016 summer top, giving us hope that a new bull market was in progress.

- however, the sharp sell off into Dec reduced the net long positions to 96k, which was much lower than average bull market value at bottoms.

- since Dec, prices have recovered about half, while net long positions only reached 164k, which is a bear market value.

Silver Continuous Contract Daily Chart

The speculation in silver is even more alarming.

Net long positions reached 95k this week, barely lower than the recovery peak of last summer, and yet the price of silver is 10% below that peak.

Gold Bugs Index Weekly Chart

To get a glimpse of the future, we must determine what the current trend is, and in which direction it is trending.

  • gold stocks as represented by $HUI is currently bound by support and resistance, and should see a break soon either way.

Summary

We have been monitoring COT data for the past seventeen years, and by observing speculative activities, it has helped us to identify the speculative values of a bull and bear market. The latest data has alerted us to the potential return to a bear market. Caution is advised.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment