• 4 hours Crypto-Mining Immigration Could Be The Start Of A New Trend
  • 2 days Hawkish Fed Sends Gold Prices Crashing
  • 3 days Bezos Is Heading To Space This Sunday
  • 6 days El Salvador’s Surprise Bitcoin Move
  • 9 days Markets Unfazed As Inflation Hits 13-Year High
  • 10 days How the Token Economy is Disrupting Financial Markets
  • 12 days FBI Investigating 100 Types Of Ransomware Attacks
  • 14 days Fed Ends Corporate Credit Emergency Lending Program
  • 16 days AMC Becomes the Latest Winning Meme Stock After GameStop
  • 17 days The Real Reason Your 401k Has Been Lagging
  • 18 days China Lifts Cap On Births, Allows Three Children Per Couple
  • 20 days The Market Is Ripe For Another GameStop Saga
  • 23 days Senate Grills Big Banks Over Pandemic Opportunism
  • 24 days Cannabis Has A Major Cash Problem
  • 25 days Ransomware Netted Criminals $350M In 2020 Alone
  • 26 days Russia Is Taking On Google
  • 27 days Chinese Regulators Deal Another Big Blow To Bitcoin
  • 28 days Ohio Residents Brave Vaccine for Chance To Win $1M
  • 30 days Inflation Is Coming. Are You Prepared?
  • 31 days Travel Might Get Another Supersonic Disruption
What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Welcome to Art Basel: The…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

We Interrupt our Regular Update with this Special Report

COT data has been instrumental in guiding us and helping us navigate market conditions during a bull and bear market. The latest COT data is quite alarming, and has our full attention going forward.

Gold Continuous Contract Daily Chart

Long time readers are familiar with this chart, and it is self explanatory.

But for newcomers, here is a detailed breakdown:

- a bull market attracts speculators and the net long positions at both tops and bottoms are significantly higher of those in a bear market. Common sense.

- the price spike in 2016 attracted a record crowd with 280k net long positions at the 2016 summer top, giving us hope that a new bull market was in progress.

- however, the sharp sell off into Dec reduced the net long positions to 96k, which was much lower than average bull market value at bottoms.

- since Dec, prices have recovered about half, while net long positions only reached 164k, which is a bear market value.

Silver Continuous Contract Daily Chart

The speculation in silver is even more alarming.

Net long positions reached 95k this week, barely lower than the recovery peak of last summer, and yet the price of silver is 10% below that peak.

Gold Bugs Index Weekly Chart

To get a glimpse of the future, we must determine what the current trend is, and in which direction it is trending.

  • gold stocks as represented by $HUI is currently bound by support and resistance, and should see a break soon either way.

Summary

We have been monitoring COT data for the past seventeen years, and by observing speculative activities, it has helped us to identify the speculative values of a bull and bear market. The latest data has alerted us to the potential return to a bear market. Caution is advised.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment