• 7 hours The True Cost Of Opportunity In America
  • 13 hours Why Investors Shouldn't Ignore Gold Stocks
  • 1 day Facebook Scrubs Over 2 Billion Fake Accounts
  • 2 days Dow Scrambles To Avoid Fifth Straight Weekly Loss
  • 2 days Is This The World’s First Truly Democratic Stock Exchange?
  • 2 days India’s Wealthiest Set To Hold $23 Trillion By 2028
  • 3 days First Quarter Profits Slip For World's Top Oil Companies
  • 3 days The Yuan May Be China's Biggest Weakness
  • 3 days Hedge Funds Having A Banner Year
  • 3 days Disney Heiress Asks “Is There Such A Thing As Too Much?”
  • 4 days BHP Turns Bullish On EVs
  • 4 days Investors Turn Bullish On America’s Nuclear Decommissioning Business
  • 4 days The $90M Inflatable Rabbit Redefining Modern Art
  • 4 days Huawei’s Fate In The Air
  • 5 days Tesla Slashes Prices Again
  • 5 days The Modern History Of Financial Entropy
  • 5 days Italy’s Central Bank Embraces Sustainable Investing
  • 5 days Trump Lifts Metals Tariffs To Cool Simmering Trade War
  • 6 days Researchers Push To Limit Space Mining
  • 6 days Could China Start Dumping U.S. Treasury Bonds?
How Millennials Are Reshaping Real Estate

How Millennials Are Reshaping Real Estate

The real estate market is…

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Stocks sold off last week…

Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings

Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings

Earnings season is well underway,…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

A Follow Up to Our Last Week's Special Update

COT data has been instrumental in guiding us and helping us navigate market conditions during a bull and bear market. The latest COT data is quite alarming, and has our full attention going forward.

Daily Gold Chart

Long time readers are familiar with this chart, and it is self explanatory.

But for newcomers, here is a detailed breakdown:

- a bull market attracts speculators and the net long positions at both tops and bottoms are significantly higher of those in a bear market. Common sense.

- the price spike in 2016 attracted a record crowd with 280k net long positions at the 2016 summer top, giving us hope that a new bull market was in progress.

- however, the sharp sell off into Dec reduced the net long positions to 96k, which was much lower than average bull market value at bottoms.

- since Dec, prices have recovered about half, while net long positions only reached 164k, which is a bear market value.

Gold CoT

COT data this week shows a sharp pull back, confirming a peak in speculation, with the peak at bear market value.

Daily Silver Chart

The speculation in silver is even more alarming.

Net long positions reached 95k this week, barely lower than the recovery peak of last summer, and yet the price of silver is 10% below that peak.

Silver CoT

Speculators in silver also retreated this week, confirming the previous week as a speculative peak.

Summary

We have been monitoring COT data for the past seventeen years, and by observing speculative activities, it has helped us to identify the speculative values of a bull and bear market. The latest data has alerted us to the potential return to a bear market. Caution is advised.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment