• 8 hours The “Oil Of The Future” Is Set To Soar In 2021
  • 11 hours Wealthy Could End Up Footing The Bill For States’ Budget Shortfalls
  • 20 hours Could This Be The Hottest Commodity Play Of 2021?
  • 1 day JP Morgan Says Fintech Will Steal The Disruptor Show
  • 3 days Facebook Plays Dirty Down Under
  • 4 days Could This Be The Most Exciting Lithium Play Of 2021?
  • 7 days China Sidelines US As EU’s New Top Trading Partner
  • 8 days 3 Smart Ways To Play the Global Chip Shortage
  • 9 days Flying Taxis Are The Number One Speculative Bull Arena
  • 10 days Ocean Power: The Missing Link
  • 15 days Luxembourg’s Ultra-Secrecy Still Attracts Hundreds Of Billionaires
  • 16 days Robinhood Is Under Fire And Trading ‘Democracy’ Is In Question
  • 17 days Bitcoin Could Be Worth $12 Trillion In The Long-Term
  • 18 days The Biggest Tech IPO Since Uber … For Farmers
  • 20 days The Biggest Boost Yet for the Cannabis Industry
  • 21 days Biden Administration Signs $231 Million Deal For At Home COVID Tests
  • 22 days China’s Tech Billionaire Ma Is Back And ‘Compliant’
  • 24 days Gamestop Crashes By 60% But The Story Is Far From Over
  • 25 days Crypto Crime Is Plummeting
  • 27 days Small Oil Firm Gets Massive Wall Street Bets Bump
The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

Modern monetary theory has been…

Trade In Counterfeit Goods Hits Half A Trillion Dollars

Trade In Counterfeit Goods Hits Half A Trillion Dollars

The counterfeit market has breached…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

A Follow Up to Our Last Week's Special Update

COT data has been instrumental in guiding us and helping us navigate market conditions during a bull and bear market. The latest COT data is quite alarming, and has our full attention going forward.

Daily Gold Chart

Long time readers are familiar with this chart, and it is self explanatory.

But for newcomers, here is a detailed breakdown:

- a bull market attracts speculators and the net long positions at both tops and bottoms are significantly higher of those in a bear market. Common sense.

- the price spike in 2016 attracted a record crowd with 280k net long positions at the 2016 summer top, giving us hope that a new bull market was in progress.

- however, the sharp sell off into Dec reduced the net long positions to 96k, which was much lower than average bull market value at bottoms.

- since Dec, prices have recovered about half, while net long positions only reached 164k, which is a bear market value.

Gold CoT

COT data this week shows a sharp pull back, confirming a peak in speculation, with the peak at bear market value.

Daily Silver Chart

The speculation in silver is even more alarming.

Net long positions reached 95k this week, barely lower than the recovery peak of last summer, and yet the price of silver is 10% below that peak.

Silver CoT

Speculators in silver also retreated this week, confirming the previous week as a speculative peak.

Summary

We have been monitoring COT data for the past seventeen years, and by observing speculative activities, it has helped us to identify the speculative values of a bull and bear market. The latest data has alerted us to the potential return to a bear market. Caution is advised.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment