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Surf City is 60-year-old retired Information Technology Executive and Software start-up Entrepreneur living near the beach in California. He has been an active investor and…

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US Dollar Inflection Point

This is the first of several updates this weekend and I thought I would start with the USD.

This update has four Charts on the USD starting with longer term charts and then moving in for a close up view on the current price action. My first chart is a long term 20 year weekly chart that shows the USD's breakout above the downtrend line from it's last top in 2001. This chart also shows the current uptrend channel out of the 2008 Low (Green and Orange lines).

Lastly this first chart also shows a steeper Blue uptrend from 2014. Some trend lines are clearly more important than others. Based on the number of touches over the past year, this Blue line is critical support for the USD's current move and is also shown on my next two shorter term charts. Based on my Cycle analysis, if and when this Blue uptrend breaks down, the USD will very likely have signaled its top within its longer 15 Year Super Cycle.

Chart 2 is a 3+ year chart that shows the same Blue uptrend along with a near horizontal Green line that may provide support for the USD prior to reaching the Blue line within this current downtrend.

Chart 3 is a nine month chart with the same Blue line. Note that we a within a whisker of a Failed Trading Cycle here but the USD is also showing signs of bottoming or basing just short of making a Lower Low here. My last chart shows the last several months of price action and why next week will be critical, IMO. It clearly shows the USD is at a short term inflection point. Either it is forming a double bottom from where it will bounce next week or it will break down and have a failed Trading Cycle. Based on Time, I would expect it to make a decision rather soon as we are either on day 35 or on day 2 of a new Trading Cycle should Wednesday's low on Day 33 prove to be a Trading Cycle Low.

US Dollar Index Weekly Chart

US Dollar Index Weekly Chart 2

US Dollar Index Daily Chart

US Dollar Index Daily Chart 2

 

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