USDJPY
30 min
4 Hours
Daily
My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: BOJ Outlook Report, BOJ Policy Rate, BOJ Press Conference. Household Spending y/y. USD: Unemployment Claims, Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Pending Home Sales m/m.
USDJPY impressed again today and the focus has now totally shifted to the rally ahead indicated in the 4hr chart.
Wave 'iv' brown is possibly underway right now, I am expecting a sideways structure in wave 'iv' possibly a triangle.
The reason being, the guideline of alteration of corrective waves would suggest it.
111.10 forms the first support level, and 11053 should hold any correction from here.
The price broke out above the resistance of the previous wave 'b' brown at 111.59 todays also.
The next big resistance level is at 112.19 the previous wave (b) green on the 4hr chart.
From here lets see how wave 'iv' develops.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
30 min
4 Hours
Daily
My Bias: market top is in.
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: Topped in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: Unemployment Claims, Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Pending Home Sales m/m.
The DOW has stalled today,
which is a positive sign for the current wave count.
It is early days yet, but I want to see the decline accelerate from here and form another lower high to turm the momentum to the downside again.
On the 4hr chart the RSI has topped out at extreme levels and turned down again.
The early signs of a momentum shift are welcome.
If we examine the larger wave pattern in wave [ii] green,
It has all the elements of an expanded flat correction to the upside.
Three waves in (a) grey,
Three in wave (b) grey.
and a five wave rally to complete the structure above the high of wave (a).
A break of 20753 would be a good signal of a turn down into wave [iii] green.
GOLD
30 min
4 Hours
Daily
My Bias: Long towards 1550
Wave Structure: ZigZag correction to the upside.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (B) at 1500
Important risk events: USD: Unemployment Claims, Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Pending Home Sales m/m.
I have updated the short term wave count to take account of the recent corrective decline.
GOLD looks to have found support at 1260,
So this Could prove an important turning point if the new wave count proves correct.
I have labelled the whole rally off the 1194 low as wave (i) blue.
The protracted decline over the last 2 weeks now takes the wave (ii) label.
This wave count is a very bullish interpretation which calls for an even bigger overall rally in the larger structure.
Wave (iii) blue could take the price up to about 1420 if a Fibonacci ratio occurs between waves (i) and (iii).
this is shown on the 4hr chart.
SO the action form here is important,
The formation of a higher low above 1260 could offer a great buying opportunity to catch the coming rally.
