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Technical market report for January 15, 2018

The good news is:

  • All of the major averages closed at all time highs last Friday.

The Negatives

The market is overbought.

NYSE 52-week new lows have picked up a bit.  The increase appears to be from interest rate sensitive issues.

Last Wednesday was widely reported as the 1st down day of the year and was followed with massive buying on Thursday.  It is beginning to look like a blow off.

The WSJ reports the S&P 500 (SPX) PE at 22.37 and the Russell 2000 (R2K) PE at 138.62.

The Positives

New highs increased rapidly last week as did NASDAQ volume.

The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new highs (NY NH) in green.  Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.

NY NH moved sharply upward confirming the new SPX high.

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in blue and OTC NH, in green, has been calculated using NASDAQ data.

OTC NH also rose rapidly, but narrowly failed to confirm the new index high.

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NASDAQ new highs divided by new highs + new lows (OTC HL Ratio), in red.  Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral, level.

OTC HL Ratio dipped a little early last week then returned to where it finished the week before at a very strong 91%.

The next chart is similar to the one above one except it shows the SPX in red and NY HL Ratio, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.

NY HL Ratio also dipped a bit last week ending at a very strong 86%.

Seasonality

Next week includes the 4 trading days prior to the 3rd Friday of January during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle.  The market will be closed Monday in observance of the Martin Luther King holiday.  The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis for that period.

OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2016 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2016.  There are summaries for both the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined.  Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored.

Average returns for the coming week have been modest and mixed.

Report for the week before the 3rd Friday of January.

The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle.

Daily returns from Monday through 3rd Friday.

OTC Presidential Year 2

 Year       Mon     Tue     Wed    Thur    Fri    Totals

 1966-2   0.56%   0.31%  -0.03%   0.41%   0.41%   1.65%

 1970-2   0.01%   0.65%   0.30%  -0.27%  -0.02%   0.67%

 1974-2   0.18%   0.73%   1.53%   1.55%  -0.66%   3.32%

 1978-2  -0.41%   0.62%   0.44%   0.16%   0.05%   0.86%

 1982-2   0.00%  -0.62%  -0.24%   0.37%  -0.31%  -0.80%

 1986-2   0.02%   0.19%   1.05%   0.58%   0.19%   2.02%

 1990-2  -0.70%   0.81%  -0.34%  -0.26%   0.77%   0.27%

 1994-2  -0.02%   0.11%  -0.47%   0.48%   0.16%   0.25%

 Avg     -0.28%   0.22%   0.09%   0.26%   0.17%   0.52%

 1998-2   0.29%   2.26%   0.43%  -0.07%   1.02%   3.93%

 2002-2  -1.57%   0.51%  -2.82%   2.13%  -2.79%  -4.55%

 2006-2   0.00%  -0.62%  -1.00%   0.97%  -2.35%  -3.00%

 2010-2   0.00%   1.42%  -1.26%  -1.12%  -2.67%  -3.62%

 2014-2  -1.47%   1.69%   0.76%   0.09%  -0.50%   0.58%

 Avg     -0.92%   1.05%  -0.78%   0.40%  -1.46%  -1.33%

OTC summary for Presidential Year 2 1966 - 2014

 Avg     -0.31%   0.62%  -0.13%   0.38%  -0.52%   0.12%

 Win%       50%     85%     46%     69%     46%     69%

OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2017

 Avg     -0.03%   0.23%   0.04%   0.20%   0.06%   0.50%

 Win%       58%     58%     58%     65%     58%     67%

SPX Presidential Year 2

 Year       Mon     Tue     Wed    Thur    Fri    Totals

 1954-2   0.00%   0.98%   0.27%   0.16%   0.23%   1.64%

 1958-2   0.30%   0.44%   0.79%   0.17%   0.10%   1.80%

 1962-2  -0.20%  -0.58%  -1.09%   0.10%   0.53%  -1.23%

 1966-2   0.29%   0.19%  -0.28%  -0.35%   0.12%  -0.03%

 1970-2  -0.76%   0.10%  -0.15%   0.03%  -0.83%  -1.61%

 1974-2  -0.26%   0.87%   1.53%   1.70%  -1.79%   2.05%

 Avg     -0.13%   0.21%   0.16%   0.33%  -0.38%   0.20%

 1978-2  -0.29%   0.50%   0.76%  -0.52%  -0.22%   0.23%

 1982-2   1.64%  -1.07%  -0.60%   0.42%  -0.32%   0.07%

 1986-2   0.37%  -0.04%   0.78%   0.44%  -0.35%   1.20%

 1990-2  -0.86%   1.11%  -0.98%   0.23%   0.28%  -0.21%

 1994-2  -0.34%   0.20%   0.01%   0.14%  -0.05%  -0.04%

 Avg      0.10%   0.14%  -0.01%   0.14%  -0.13%   0.25%

 1998-2   1.24%   1.38%   0.61%  -0.75%   1.13%   3.61%

 2002-2  -0.63%   0.68%  -1.62%   1.00%  -0.99%  -1.56%

 2006-2   0.00%  -0.36%  -0.39%   0.56%  -1.83%  -2.03%

 2010-2   0.00%   1.25%  -1.06%  -1.89%  -2.21%  -3.92%

 2014-2  -1.26%   1.08%   0.52%  -0.13%  -0.39%  -0.18%

 Avg     -0.21%   0.81%  -0.39%  -0.24%  -0.86%  -0.82%

SPX summary for Presidential Year 2 1954 - 2014

 Avg     -0.06%   0.42%  -0.06%   0.08%  -0.41%  -0.01%

 Win%       38%     75%     50%     69%     38%     44%

SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2017

 Avg     -0.09%   0.11%  -0.07%   0.04%  -0.05%  -0.04%

 Win%       43%     60%     54%     58%     55%     49%

Money supply (M2) and Interest Rates

The following charts were supplied by Gordon Harms.

M2 growth appears to be slowly declining from its elevated trend.           

All rates have been rising; however, short term rates have been rising much more rapidly than long term rates accelerating rate compression.  We continue on track for a rate inversion which has been a reliable predictor of a recession.

Conclusion

The market is overbought, but that does not seem to matter.

New 52 week new highs and the R2K both had a good week.

Seasonality for the coming week is not great, but better than last week.

I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday January 19 than they were on Friday January 12.

Last weeks negative forecast was a miss.

By Mike Burk

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