• 277 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 278 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 280 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 679 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 684 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 686 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 689 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 689 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 690 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 692 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 692 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 696 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 696 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 697 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 699 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 700 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 703 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 704 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 704 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 706 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Oilprice.com

Oilprice.com

Writer, OilPrice.com

Information/Articles and Prices on a wide range of commodities: We have assembled a team of experienced writers to provide you with information on Crude Oil,…

Contact Author

Related News

  1. Home
  2. Energy
  3. Other

OPEC ‘Supergroup’ Keeps Oil Exports Subdued

OPEC

I was jesting the other day about who would be on guitar in OPEC's supergroup, but it got me thinking about the various global oil producers, and how their traits could be reflective of their musicianship. This is where it led me...

If OPEC / NOPEC were a supergroup, Saudi Arabia would have to be the band manager: the leader keeping everyone else in check. The kingdom would also double-up as the tour bus driver, given they are the ones driving the rest of the group.     

If Saudi is the manager, Russia must be the lead singer, stepping into the spotlight and up to the mic. Unlike roadies (the minnows of OPEC / NOPEC), everyone listens to the singer. 

As the chart below illustrates, Russia has been remarkably successful at dialing back its exports, particularly in the second half of last year, with the likes of Rosneft, Lukoil and Gazprom being strong-armed into compliance. 

Russian crude exports spent 2017 averaging 240,000 bpd below October 2016's reference level, signaling compliance by our calculations.

(Click to enlarge)

With Russia as our vocalist, Angola and Kuwait would be the rhythm section, a measured and solid basis for the band. Kuwait would be the drummer, upbeat and on point, while Angola would be the bass player, steady and reliable - as has been their compliance.

We discussed last month how our ClipperData show that Angola has been in compliance by exporting 37 million fewer barrels last year versus its October 2016 reference level.

As the chart below illustrates, the West African nation has continued to keep its leading destination, China, well supplied, delivering 55 percent of its 2017 exports there (servicing its oil-for-debt obligations). The U.S. was the second-leading destination for Angolan crude last year, but a long, long (looooong) way back in second - accounting for less than 8 percent of total deliveries.    

Back to our supergroup, we still need someone on the axe. Libya is perhaps the best fit for lead guitar, given the ability of its choppy exports to rise and fall like Eric Clapton shredding a fretboard.

Related: What’s Really Happening With Venezuela’s “El Petro?”

After averaging just 13,000 bpd in 2016, exports of El Sharara and Es Sider ramped up emphatically in 2017, averaging a whopping 250,000 bpd.

The El Sharara field, Libya's largest, was closed in November 2014, before ramping back up again in late 2016. Flows of Es Sider were briefly taken offline in late December amid the Waha pipeline explosion, but as the chart below illustrates, exports from the Es Sider terminal rebounded soon enough as the pipeline was quickly repaired. 

Exports of both Es Sider and El Sharara have started 2018 by riffing higher, averaging over 450,000 bpd in January, accounting for over a half of total crude exports. As domestic production rises, total Libyan exports are now up to their highest level since mid-2013. Rock 'n Roll.   

By Matt Smith

More Top Reads From Safehaven.com:

Back to homepage

Related posts

Leave a comment

Leave a comment