• 527 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 527 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 529 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 929 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 934 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 936 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 939 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 939 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 940 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 942 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 942 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 946 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 946 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 947 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 949 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 950 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 953 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 954 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 954 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 956 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Today's Jobs Data is Yesterday's "Trick or Treat" on Tomorrow's Elections

Have you ever wanted to be the Fed Governor - arguably, one of the most powerful people in the world? Here's a little simulation game that we have found amusing on this post US jobs data afternoon.

http://www.iq-trader.com/University/FED.html

Control inflation and unemployment by adjusting interest rates and hopefully by the time your term is done, your performance will be evaluated favorably.

Play this game all day long but you won't see a 5-year low in the unemployment rate after 17 consecutive interest rate hikes. And if Bernanke was jovial after having timed the inflation curve perfectly, chances are that he is not smiling today.

So how do we justify today's sharp decline to 4.4% - a figure beyond anyone's (bond market and FOMC included) expectations? Incompetence in measurement at the Bureau of Labor Statistics is certainly a possibility, best assessed by an immediate response from a futures trader quoted on CNBC this morning: "If this country was run as a corporation, the executive would be wearing an orange jumpsuit". But if this really is an attempt to manipulate public opinion heading into next week's midterm election, whoever is behind this not-so-subtle scam must be counting on one obtuse electorate.

We don't buy this rose-colored view for a second and will look to fade this dollar rally at the first hint of exhaustion. Having formulated our analysis around the Elliott Wave Theory, today's USD gains fit perfectly into our wave count of an ABCDE type of consolidation followed by a wave (5) retreat in the dollar index. Yesterday, we have prepared our subscribers for a dollar rally on stronger than expected NFP. We have since taken profit on the majority of our long position and expect this wave e to be characteristically short. The result is the likely further decline of the dollar index.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment