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December Outlook

12/4/2006 6:40:51 AM

Through our charts we try to confirm seasonal weakness for the first half of the month...

WEEKLY WRAP-UP

Dear Speculators,

Welcome new readers! We have a free weekly newsletter on our site where we provide free samples to our various trading services. Click here to sign up as we'll be publishing my 3 hour trading video for free around the beginning of 2007. We also offer free 4-week trials to all our services, from the $9.95/month 5 stock trading service to the $149/month Dynamic Options service. Please click the links if you're interested.

Of course, if you have any additional questions, please feel free to email me at jay@stockbarometer.com.


Dynamic Trading Signals are based on a series of Oscillators tuned to the short and intermediate term movement of the market. Our goal is to be in the market at all times and switch from bearish to bullish positions in line with the markets movements (except for the Options service, which is subject to greater volatility and time decay). Periodically we will go to cash and await the next system trade.

DYNAMIC TRADING OSCILLATOR


INVESTOR'S INTELLIGENCE BULL BEAR SPREAD

Each week, Investor's Intelligence polls a number of newsletter writers. The poll results in a number of bullish advisors and a number of bearish advisors. The difference between those two numbers produces the following chart. It's believed, that when a majority of newsletter writers (like us) are bullish, that the market is near a top, and vice versa. The direction of this line is as critical as the level.

EQUITY INDEX OPTION VOLUME RATIO

The market is all about risk, and there are two primary classes of participants in the market, the individual investors and the institutions. Individuals primarily trade equity options and institutions primarily trade index options. So the relationship between the two gives us an idea of how much risk the individual is willing to take on. At tops, the individual tends to take on too much risk, making this indicator rise. At bottoms, the individual is usually washed out of the market, making this indicator fall.

QQQQ v. SPY RELATIVE STRENGTH

Risk tells us a lot about the market. This indicator looks at risk from another perspective. When market participants overall increase their willingness to take on risk, it's bullish for the market. That risk shift is shown on the above chart as a shift in relative strength from the Nasdaq to the NYSE. Note when we refer to Nasdaq, we're primarily looking at the QQQQ - since that's the focus of our service. And when we say NYSE, we look at the SPY.

MONEY FLOW

This indicator looks at the flow of money in and out of various investment vehicles. For the most part, when money flow reaches an extreme, in either buying or selling, the market is at a top or a bottom, respectively.


NDX CHART


In summary:

Dynamic Trading remains on its current CASH SIGNAL.

The market and the indicators here are pointing towards a little more weakness to at least test Friday's lows. If the market survives this test, we're back up to the top of the range.

In the longer term, 11/28 was one of our key reversal dates, and our last one until next year. So whatever happens here, will likely remain the story for the rest of the year.

Best regards and good trading!

 

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