• 806 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 806 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 808 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,208 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,213 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,214 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,218 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,218 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,219 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,220 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,221 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,225 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,225 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,226 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,228 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,228 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,232 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,233 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,233 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,235 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Employment and Recessions (Short and "Sweet"): A Picture Worth Thousand Words

When Wall Street and Federal Reserve economists point to the current employment growth as a sign of the economy's health, over the next few quarters, i.e., a sign of "soft landing," they are lying because employment keeps growing until the economy is in a recession already. Fig. 1 says it all.

Any decline in employment, over a 3-Month period, and a sharp decline in the inflation rate take place during the recession itself. Average employment growth over the 3-month period, annualized rate, just before the US economy entered recessions:

1960 - 2001: 1.9%

1979 - 2001: 1.2%

Current rate? 1.2%!

Employment is a BIG lagging indicator of the economic growth. I can guarantee one thing, no Wall Street or Federal Reserve economist would dare to show you the above graph.

It is very important to note that Housing and Manufacturing lead the employment and economic weakness while Services lag the employment and economic weakness.

Note: Permission is granted to all to forward, post and publish with credit to the author.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment