• 947 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 947 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 949 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,349 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,353 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,355 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,358 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,359 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,360 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,361 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,362 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,366 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,366 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,367 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,369 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,369 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,373 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,373 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,374 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,376 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies,…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Shorting Overbought Commodities

The big picture of the DUG (the ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF) shows Monday morning's huge upside opening gap and follow-through that amounts to about a 6% climb from Friday's close.

More importantly, though, is the upside assault on the Sept-Nov resistance plateau at 44.00-44.50, which when hurdled should trigger additional follow-through to test the Feb-Nov resistance line that cuts across the price axis in the vicinity of 49.00.

Gold, like oil, looks lower. Spot gold continued down on Monday in what looks like a significant decline off a blow-off type peak. Here is what I wrote for subscribers on Friday morning:

The three salient features of the big picture view of spot gold are: 1) that the current vertical advance measures $205, which approximates the distance of the widest traverse of the proceeding 15-month coil pattern -- and usually identifies the optimal follow-through target zone -- in this case in the $830/40 area; and 2) that the relatively reliable 15-week cycle (low to low, see blue arrows) points to a next cycle "low" around December 3rd, which is about 3 1/2 weeks from now and represents 25% of the cycle length -- just about the position in a "right translated" cycle to expect a period of weakness into a cycle low.

Finally, 3) my daily RSI is not confirming Thursday's new high in spot gold, which is a third cause for some concern that a correction is approaching quickly.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment