• 402 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 402 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 404 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 804 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 809 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 811 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 814 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 814 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 815 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 817 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 817 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 821 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 821 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 822 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 824 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 825 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 828 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 829 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 829 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 831 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Around The Markets: A Chart Review (Part 2)


Figure 1 is a monthly chart of gold. Gold remains somewhat extended above its 10 month moving average, which will likely catch up to price before the precious metal moves higher. Gold remains in a bull market, but it will need some time to consolidate the gains seen in 2007 and 2008.

Figure 1. Gold/ monthly

Gold Mining Sector

Figure 2 is a monthly chart of the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Mining Index (symbol: $XAU). The precious metal miners index is bullish, and with the ratio of gold to $XAU greater than 5 to 1, and with real interest rates negative, the dynamics for a sustainable price move are in place.

Figure 2. $XAU/ monthly


Figure 3 is a monthly chart of the Dow Jones US Steel Index; this is another chart I have been featuring over the past month. This remains bullish.

Figure 3. $DJUSST/ monthly

Dow Jones Utility Index

Figure 4 is a monthly chart of the Dow Jones Utility Index. With the monthly close

Figure 4. $DJU/ monthly

below the prior pivot low (i.e., the "M" type top), I became bearish on utilities. Recently, prices are perking up and this may reverse the potential down trend. Let's wait and see where prices are at the end of the month. Initially, I thought the weakness in utilities was a sign that higher yields on long dated treasuries were imminent, but this view seemed inconsistent with the technical picture seen in treasuries. Long dated bonds are nearing there all time highs, and many are calling for higher yields and lower bond prices. Bonds are overvalued (relative to equities), yet despite this, it would not surprise me to see yields lower (higher bonds even still).

Maybe this is the new message of the potential reversal seen in the utilities. As stated, let's wait until the end of the month for clarity.

Oil Services

Figure 5 is a monthly chart of the AMEX Oil Service Holders (symbol: OIH). A difficult chart to interpret, but one thing I am pretty sure of: a monthly close below $170 and the bull market for OIH is finished.

Figure 5. OIH/ monthly

Integrated Oil

Figure 6 is a monthly chart of the S&P Select Energy Fund (symbol: XLE). The green arrow highlights the breakout bar seen about a year ago. The action has been sloppy, but it would not surprise me to see XLE travel within the confines of this new trend channel. A monthly close below $73.67, and the bull market for XLE is over.

Figure 6. XLE/ monthly


Figure 7 is a monthly chart of the Semiconductor Index (symbol: $SOX). Old support is now resistance and this is at the 385 level.

Figure 7. $SOX/ monthly


Figure 8 is a monthly chart of the Biotechnology Index (symbol: $BTK). This chart has many bearish elements including a close below a prior pivot low, a trend line break, and multiple negative divergences. Once thought as "safe but with growth" and therefore "better" than big pharma, there is nothing pretty about Biotech.

Figure 8. $BTK/ monthly

To learn more about our quantitative and disciplined investment approach please visit www.thetechnicaltake.com and sign up for our free weekly newsletter and downloads.

Guy M. Lerner may be reached at guy@thetechnicaltake.com.


Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment