Mike Shedlock

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

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• Steve Keen on Economic Forecasts, Ponzi Schemes, GDP, China; One Way Streets and Poison

  Published 28 August 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Economic Forecasts Economist Steve Keen pinged me in response to my post Regional Manufacturing Expectations From Mars. In that post, I compared Richmond Fed manufacturing…

• GDP by Other Measures; Will the 'Real' GDP Please Stand Up?

  Published 27 August 2015 | viewed 0 times

  In the wake of a stronger than expected GDP report (see Second Quarter GDP Revised Up, as Expected, Led by Autos, Housing), some are questioning…

• Lessons in Gravity and Intervention; Do Something!

  Published 24 August 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Prop Up Failure After futile attempts to prop up its stock market bubble, China stood back and did what it should have done in the…

• VIX 'Too Disjointed to Calculate a Value'; Panic Grips Emerging Markets; Biggest VIX Jump on Record

  Published 24 August 2015 | viewed 0 times

  As the equity rout gathers steam across all markets, the volatility measure VIX Didn't Update for 30 Minutes. For a brief period this morning, anxiety…

• One Hell of a Round Trip: Chinese Stocks Crash 8.45%, Give Up 60% Gains This Year

  Published 24 August 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Chinese stock plunged another 296.55 points today (8.45%) to 3211.20. The market was once up over 60% on the year in June, but is now…

• Sweet Deals and Cookie Crumbles; Sugar, Sugar

  Published 23 August 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Nearly every week I receive emails from readers asking me to explain my stance against tariffs. The typical claim I hear is that we need…

• Oil Crash Continues: West Texas Crude Below $40, Brent Near $45; Floating Oil Carry Trade in Review

  Published 21 August 2015 | viewed 0 times

  The crash in oil prices continues. Here are a couple charts to consider. West Texas Crude Brent Crude West Texas Intermediate broke the $40 barrier…

• Plotting the Fed's Baby Step 1/8 Point Hikes; Yellen vs. Greenspan 'Measured Pace'

  Published 19 August 2015 | viewed 0 times

  The market still believes the Fed will hike rates in September or October. The CME's FedWatch Sees it like this. That table is based on…

• Congratulations! Chicago Just Leapfrogged 4 Cities to America's Highest Sales Tax rate; Graft Chicago Style

  Published 18 August 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Listen to the chants from Chicago: We're Number 1! We're Number 1! We're Number 1! Chicago just leapfrogged past several other cities with the passage…

• Motor Vehicles, Housing Starts Boost GDPNow 3rd Quarter Forecast to Anemic 1.3 Percent

  Published 18 August 2015 | viewed 0 times

  A 15% boost in motor vehicle assemblies added 0.5 percentage points to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast for 3rd quarter GDP. The GDPNow model forecast…

• Sentiment as a Measure of Health of the Economy; Sentiment Theory vs. Practice

  Published 15 August 2015 | viewed 0 times

  The University of Michigan consumer sentiment numbers came out today. Sentiment is down again this month, albeit slightly. Yet, confidence remains at a lofty level.…

• 3rd Quarter GDPNow Estimate a Weak 0.7% Despite Retail Sales Jump

  Published 13 August 2015 | viewed 0 times

  The Retail Sales Upward Revisions will likely add a couple ticks to second quarter GDP, but overall growth still remains very weak. GDP as Reported…

• Don't Worry, There's Only One Cockroach

  Published 12 August 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Yesterday, I reported China Joins Currency War With Surprise Devaluation, Biggest One-Day Move on Record. The yuan fell about 2% vs the dollar yesterday, the…

• China Joins Currency War With Surprise Devaluation, Biggest One-Day Move on Record

  Published 11 August 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Surprise Devaluation In a move sure to heighten trade tensions with protectionists in US Congress, Surprise China Devaluation Marks Escalation of Currency War. According to…

• Productivity Remains Weak; Spotlight on Retail Store and Trucking; Are Productivity Measurements Accurate?

  Published 11 August 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Economists expected bounce in productivity, and got one, but it was a bit weaker than than the Bloomberg Consensus Estimate of 1.6%. A bounce back…

• Germany Isolated as Greece Near 86 Billion Euro Deal With Creditors; Ambitious Yes, Feasible No

  Published 10 August 2015 | viewed 0 times

  In reaching a deal with Greece, Germany is the last remaining holdout. Even Greece-skeptic countries like Finland have shifted 180 degrees to become true believers…

• China's Exports Plunge 8% in July; Spotlight on US Trade Imbalance With China

  Published 09 August 2015 | viewed 0 times

  In addition to bubble-busting events in real estate and the Chinese stock market, China now has to deal a plunge in exports. Following Saturday's report…

• Establishment Survey +215K Jobs, Household Employment Survey +101K, Part-Time Employment -760K, Labor Force +69K

  Published 07 August 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Initial Reaction Today's job report (for July) once again showed a divergence between the household survey and the establishment survey. The divergence was not as…

• Taper Tantrum Coming? It Won't Be Where Nearly Everyone Is Looking! The Next Tantrum

  Published 07 August 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Investors have been expecting another "Taper Tantrum" when the Fed starts hiking. The term "Taper Tantrum" refers to the surge in US treasury yields (global…

• Mish for President: Officially Throwing My Hat Into the Ring; 11 Questions, 11 Answers

  Published 06 August 2015 | viewed 0 times

  The American public has questions. And unlike others running for president, I have frank answers. And with my answers to major questions presented below, I…