• 14 hours Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings
  • 17 hours How Millennials Are Reshaping Real Estate
  • 20 hours Is America's Love For Cars Fizzling?
  • 22 hours Increased Solar Demand Could Spark Silver Buying Spree
  • 2 days Amazon Calls It Quits On Alibaba’s Home Turf
  • 2 days Market Euphoria Weighs On Gold
  • 3 days Did Facebook Just Become ‘Uninvestable’?
  • 3 days Electric Vehicles Are Reshaping The Mining Industry
  • 4 days Buffett, Dimon Voice Support For Stock Buybacks
  • 4 days Newmont Goldcorp Now World's Top Miner After Sealing The Deal
  • 5 days Canopy Growth Eyes U.S. Pot Producer In $3.4B Takeover Deal
  • 5 days U.S. Slaps New Sanctions On Cuba To End ‘Glamorization Of Communism’
  • 5 days The Unstoppable Electric Bus Revolution
  • 5 days Pinterest, Zoom Launch Much Anticipated IPOs
  • 6 days Marijuana’s Bizarre Bottleneck Isn’t What You’d Expect
  • 6 days Climbing Stocks Weigh On Gold, But A Turnaround May Be Near
  • 6 days China's Economic Growth Exceeds Analyst Expectations
  • 6 days Gold Prices Fall On Record Global Production Estimates
  • 7 days Can Meditation Make A Business More Profitable?
  • 7 days America’s Biggest And Most Profitable Actually Got Tax Rebates
Buffett, Dimon Voice Support For Stock Buybacks

Buffett, Dimon Voice Support For Stock Buybacks

Stock buybacks have surged in…

Pinterest, Zoom Launch Much Anticipated IPOs

Pinterest, Zoom Launch Much Anticipated IPOs

Pinterest and Zoom went public…

Newmont Goldcorp Now World's Top Miner After Sealing The Deal

Newmont Goldcorp Now World's Top Miner After Sealing The Deal

Newmont Mining’s $10 billion acquisition…

Frank Holmes

Frank Holmes

Frank Holmes is CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors, Inc., which manages a diversified family of mutual funds and hedge funds specializing…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Investing
  3. Stocks

Gold Mining Stocks Are Soaring

Gold Stocks

Bond yields are crashing in major markets all around the world as fears of a global economic slowdown have prompted investors to seek shelter in low-risk government debt. Both Germany and Japan’s 10-year bond yields are back below zero, marking the first time we’ve seen German yields turn negative since October 2016. As I shared with you last week, the pool of negative-yielding bonds around the globe now stands at a post-2017 high of $9.32 trillion. Yields in Australia and New Zealand have also fallen to record lows, according to Bloomberg.

(Click to enlarge) 

The Yield Curve Just Inverted. Time to Get Defensive?

Here in the U.S., the yield on the 10-year Treasury has fallen to a more-than-one-year low on a dovish Federal Reserve. As you no doubt know by now, late last week, one very important part of the yield curve inverted for the first time since late 2006. On Tuesday morning, the 10-year Treasury was yielding 2.43 percent, compared to 2.46 percent for the 3-month Treasury—a small but meaningful spread of negative 3 basis points.

(Click to enlarge) 

A yield curve inversion indicates that investors are anticipating a rate cut in the near future, which itself is a possible sign that economic growth is slowing. As such, inversions have been among the most reliable forecasters of recessions—at least here in the U.S., where each of the past seven recessions were preceded by an inversion.

Gold Stocks Have Traded Inversely to Treasury Yields

Responding to this development, Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson told CNBC this week that investors should “remain defensively positioned.” Related: What's The Federal Reserve's Next Move?

One of the best defensive positions, I believe, is gold bullion and gold mining stocks, which in the past have traded inversely to yields. When yields have risen, indicating less demand for a safe haven, gold prices have sunk. And when yields have fallen, indicating a risk-off sentiment, gold prices have climbed.

Take a look below. What the chart shows is the inverse relationship between gold mining stocks and the real 10-year Treasury yield—“real” meaning inflation-adjusted. As you can see, gold stocks soared in the summer of 2016 as yields deteriorated and finally dipped below zero.

(Click to enlarge) 

Today, yields are similarly on a downward path, boosting gold stocks. Year-to-date through March 26, the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is up more than 10 percent.

But will yields turn negative? I can’t say for sure, of course. What I can say is that gold and gold mining stocks have historically been a good place to be positioned when economic fears pushed down bond yields.

By Frank Holmes

More Top Reads From Safehaven.com:

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment