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Markets

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Charts and Commentary

Jul 19, 2006 at 00:00

...even if the market reacts favorably to the CPI and Bernanke today, there are enough fearful investors in the mix that it will mean there is still some market work…

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E-Economic Newsletter

Jul 19, 2006 at 00:00

To illustrate the bizarre, simplistic thinking of the Wall Street Journal, I quote from their July 12 editorial "Soaking the Rich", where they wax enthusiastic about the falling budget deficit,…

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Homebuilding and Retailing Stock Indexes Speak Volumes

Jul 19, 2006 at 00:00

Together, consumer spending and residential investment (housing) account for about 75% of GDP. Financial market prices tend reflect investors' expectations. These expectations may or may not turn out to be…

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Is It Time To Prepare For Economic Weakness?

Jul 19, 2006 at 00:00

Using investments from several different asset classes, investors can do very well even in bad times for the major U.S. stock indices and the economy. As described below, the odds…

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TICS Analysis, Bernanke Outlook

Jul 18, 2006 at 00:00

The May TICS figure overshot our forecast of $35 bln as we expected the 2.6% decline in the dollar's trade weighted and the 3.1% drop in the S&P 500 to…

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Second Verse, Same as the First

Jul 18, 2006 at 00:00

Many media pundits tell us that the markets may be down for the moment, but that we shouldn't worry or be bothered by bearish arguments, because the markets are just…

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Weekly Wrap-up: Earnings, Fair Value, and the 4-Yr Cycle

Jul 18, 2006 at 00:00

The 4-Year Cycle, which we have been exploring at length and in detail, has reached an important precipice, and will very likely make the choice between a benevolent 4-Yr Cycle…

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The Main Flaw in the Deflation Case

Jul 18, 2006 at 00:00

Some very smart people are forecasting deflation for the US; or, perhaps we should say (with tongue firmly planted in cheek) that some people who are very smart except when…

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Russian Central Bank Allows Ruble to Appreciate - Is More To Come?

Jul 18, 2006 at 00:00

News out of Russia this morning was dominated by the (non)decisions and papered-over-disagreements of the G-8 meeting in St. Petersburg. Barely-noticed outside of the currency markets was the fact that…

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History - The Great Teacher!

Jul 18, 2006 at 00:00

We are now living in an inflationary war cycle. Over the coming decade, I expect massive inflation (money-supply growth) and worsening geo-political conflicts. During such a hostile environment, commodities (especially…