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Markets

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More Bad Inflation Karma

May 04, 2004 at 00:00

April represented the 26th consecutive month in which prices rose, with the index measuring this component coming in at 88.0 (up 2.0 points from March). The April reading was the…

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Is the "Correction" Nearly Over, or Are We Beginning a More Serious Decline?

May 03, 2004 at 00:00

Cycle analysis: The 12-year cycle -- of which the 4-year cycle is an important component -- bottomed in October 2002, causing a sharp decline into that period and a powerful…

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EWP on the DOW & S&P 500

May 02, 2004 at 00:00

The last few weeks EWP has been looking for the end of magenta (B) wave. Unless there is a shock or some driving event to the market to act as…

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The Character Of Slack

May 01, 2004 at 00:00

Despite a better tone to manufacturing oriented diffusion indices lately (ISM, Philly Fed, NY Empire State Manufacturing, etc.), the recovery in headline industrial production remains subdued for now. A few…

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Technical Market Report

May 01, 2004 at 00:00

All of the technical ingredients are in place for significant decline to a cycle low which would require all of the averages to drop below their March lows. The pattern…

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Financial Markets Forecast and Analysis

May 01, 2004 at 00:00

We remain under a Dow Theory "sell" signal, the S&P to VIX ratio is a Bearish 66.34 (over 70 is bad), and there are topping patterns all over the place.…

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The Yield Curve, Part 7

May 01, 2004 at 00:00

But sometimes short-term rates rise above long term rates. Estrella and Mishkin demonstrated that the more negative the 90 day average of the difference between the 90 day Treasury rate…

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Federal Reserve Miracle?

Apr 30, 2004 at 00:00

I fully expect financial and economic crisis to leave the Greenspan Fed and its New Age Notions of Central Banking fully discredited. In stark contrast, I could not be more…

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Monthly DJIA Update: 5/30/03 and 4/28/78

Apr 30, 2004 at 00:00

For 5/30/03 and 4/28/78 to comprise a post-signal pattern pair the Monthly DJIA must show a net downside bias from 5/30/03 to 5/30/05, roughly tracking its 4/28/78 to 4/30/80 path.…

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Silver Corrects or Crashes?

Apr 30, 2004 at 00:00

Now the silver pattern above is nowhere near as extreme as the NASDAQ bubble. Great bubbles in history only happen at the climax stage of great bull markets running a…