The Flash Crash Cycle

By: Ian Thijm | Wed, Apr 3, 2013
Print Email

The 5/6/10 mini Crash became known as the Flash Crash. I discovered this cycle back in 2010, when the Flash Crash occurred, which is why I named it the Flash crash cycle. This Cycle has been in the markets ever since the crash of 4/14/00 Low. I was amazed, when I first discovered this cycle to find it was a perfect 360 Trading Days (TD) Cycle, like the 360 degrees of a Circle (Cycle), it suggested that this fixed Cycle was found at major turning points.

The Flash Crash (FC) Cycle is a fixed 75 wk/525CD/360 TD (degree) Cycle that was ideally due 3/23/13 +/- 1 month.

S&P500 Chart
Larger Image

04/14/00L -358- 9/21/01L - 369/77- 3/12/03L -359 - 8/13/04L- 1078 (3X 360
=1080) - 11/21/08L-356/521-4/26/10H-364/526-10/4/11L-3/23/13 +/-Mo.

Some of the 525 CD/75 week cycle Lows were major Panic Lows, like the 4/14/00 Low, 9/21/01 Panic Low and the 11/21/08 banking crisis Low, although some were not all that "flashy", like the 3/12/03 Low and 8/13/04 Low, but still they were major Lows.

The Flash Crash cycle in details
04/14/00L - 09/21/01L = 525 CD = 75 weeks = 2.618 X 200 CD = 523.6
04/14/00L - 03/12/03L = 1062 CD = 2.02 X 525 CD = 03/12/03 Major Low
04/14/00L - 08/13/04L = 1582 CD = 3.01 X 525 CD = 08/13/04 Major Low
04/14/00L - 11/21/08L = 3143 CD = 5.99 X 525 CD = 11/21/08 Major Low,
04/14/00L - 05/06/10L = 3674 CD = 7.00 X 525 CD = 05/06/10 flash Crash,
04/14/00L - 10/14/11 = 4200 CD = 7.98 X 525 CD = 10/04/11L, Major Low.
Next → 04/14/00L= 4275 CD = 9.00 X 525 CD = 03/23/13 +/- Month

Looking back at all the FC Lows, we notice the next 75 wk Cycle Low is due 3/23/13L +/-month, in April 2013

7 out of 9 FC Cycles saw 7%-26% (avg 12-14%) declines and most are in 2-3 wks

03/24/00H - 04/14/00L was a 14% decline in 3 weeks
08/31/01H - 09/21/01L was a 20% decline in 3 weeks
01/31/13H - 03/12/03L was a 16% decline in 8 weeks
06/24/04H - 08/13/04L was a 7% decline in 7 weeks
11/04/08H - 11/21/08L was a 26% decline in 3 weeks
4/26/10H - 05/06/10L was a 12% decline in 3 weeks
9/16/11H - 10/04/11L was a 12% decline in 2 weeks

7 out of 9 (78%) of the Flash Crash 360 TD/75 week Cycles saw sharp 12-14% declines, (2 of 9, 22% did not see any decline) mostly in 2-3 weeks some time in April 2013 Lows. Some were not "flashy", like the 3/12/03L and 8/13/04L, but were still major Lows.

Perfect (exact) 360 TD (degrees) Harmonics:
04/14/00L + 3240 TD (9 X 360 TD) = 03/07/13
09/21/01L + 2880 TD (8 X 360 TD) = 03/05/13
03/12/03L + 2520 TD (7 X 360 TD) = 03/18/13
08/13/04L + 2160 TD (6 X 360 TD) = 03/15/13
11/21/08L + 1080 TD (3 X 360 TD) = 03/13/13
05/06/10L + 720 TD (2 X 360 TD) = 03/19/13
10/04/11L + 360 TD (1 X 360 TD) = 03/13/13

It is interesting that so many (7) 360 TD degree Harmonics are all due in March 2013.

Conclusion Flash Crash (FC) cycle: As the Flash Crash (FC) Cycle is a 1 1/2 year fixed cycle, it will have a variance of a month, which means we can see the FC decline in April. Ideally the FC Low is due in April 2013. Once the major High is determined by the more precise dominant Cycle1, we will then see a swift 2-3 week, minimum 7% to average 12% decline most likely into the April Lows.

 


 

Ian Thijm

Author: Ian Thijm

Ian Thijm BSc, MBA
Raj Times and Cycles

My first experience with the Stock-markets was during my MBA in August 1987, right before the 87 crash. Needless to say I fell in love with the markets and studied everything I could on Timing and Cycles in the Markets, including Gann, Bayer, Baumring, Astrology, Geometry, etc. Although I loved the markets, the markets didn't love me the 1st 7 years. Then I found a unique "Ezekiel Wheel" (Symmetry Point Cycle) based on the works of James Brock and in October 1994, I turned $5000 into over $112,000 in one month. I thought I had found the Golden Key to unlock all the market profits, but the markets again humbled me. I spent the next 7 years studying and researching various unique Time and Cycle methods. Then in June 2000, I met my Partner and I became a full time Investment Manager. Life, like Markets goes through Cycles and the next 7 years, I had the most valuable, enriching lessons in my life with Markets, People and managing Money. It was very enlightening. This brings us to the present day, where I feel the need to share and teach what I have learned and that is what this blog and website is all about. I hope it is worthwhile to you.

Copyright © 2013-2017 Ian Thijm

All Images, XHTML Renderings, and Source Code Copyright © Safehaven.com